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As Ron mentioned, you are playing it very tight here. this is a trade you will need to monitor closely.
If you have a full time job, it would make more sense to place trades you do not need to watch too often.
E.g.: Ron's ES spread or Myrrdin's recent CL C60-C70 spread do not have to be watched too closely and can be done with a full time job.
I have a full time job as well. These types of trade do not take much time, give me more room and also offer good learning experiences.
We are in a weather market, and at this time of the year you can loose a lot of money when selling options. Currently I avoid selling options on these commodities, as it is hard to predict the weather. The reason for the recent retracements was a cooler and wetter weather forecast last weekend. But it could have been hotter and drier as well - who knows in advance ? And in this case, especially soybean prices would have been exploding.
The problem for option sellers: If you win you win a small amount. If you loose you loose a lot. Thus, you have to make a high percentage of winners. But trading during weather markets is like flipping a coin.
There might be interesting opportunities for call sellers when the crops are more or less made. Volatility often is still quite high, but risk of an unforeseen large price move is lower.
So in general this time of year, it doesnt matter if its cool and wet or hot and dry. Votatilly will go up.Eaxample cool climate is good for harwesting, where as in opposte hot dry, may be more labour intensive.Olso if china slows down natrually, or political storm of event Zs andZ W cana see lot height price in oct.
At this time of the year it does matter, if it is hot and dry or cold and wet. This is the time of the year when the crop is made. If it is dry and hot in August Soybeans crop will be significantly lower than if it is cold and dry. One weather forecast can send soybeans prices up and down, as it happened last weekend.
In such a situation of course volatility is high. But I do not think it is wise to sell calls on these commodities at this time of the year.
Harvest for corn and beans is still far away, harvest for winter wheat is almost done.
Sold the CLF C60-70 (not CLZ C60-70, as stated below) some days ago. Intend to take profit at 50 %, if given the chance in the near future.
Sold the CTZ C76 today. Cotton price moved above 70 for the first time in a while. Short time supply is rather tight, but this should change after the harvest.
Prices for the other commodities did not move far enough to be able to sell their options at a reasonable price.
