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When I saw all of the green (futures up day to day) on my screen on Thursday, especially oil, I highly suspected that ES would follow higher. That is why I took profit yesterday on the 1500s.
Today energies are down but everything else is up big. Not sure what to make of it.
I have seen a lot of articles and comments by people so ready to get long the stock market and maybe this is what we are seeing last 2 days. But I am extremely doubtful ES has bottomed. Not even close.
Goldman Sachs said that next week's (Thursday 8:30 am ET) new weekly unemployment claims will top 2.25 MILLION. Lately it has been 200,000. Record for one week is 695,000 in 1987. I suspect following week will be big number too. Auto makers closed plants Thursday or Friday.
Buying puts and comments in this post are OT. Should I start new thread or keep it here?
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206
I like most people are looking for an opportunity to get long, (and have a bought a little) but I think we're going lower first. Maybe even 20% lower. I think a decent chunk of the recent down move was crude driven and not virus related! Max panic won't be until at earliest next week maybe even later. People still don't realize the damage this is going to do to both the economy and most of the countries wallets. I don't think the bottom is in until that max panic happens. It's all compounded by the fact that the market was too high to start with.
EXACTLY!
Hey you could, but this really is your thread and it's only slight out of place here. I think the people reading this thread are happy to have it here but obviously your call.
They are talking phase 2 and phase 3 of the relief bill with the latter being the big one. Unemployment Thu so am hoping this drags onto Friday for even phase 2 or close to 2k ES when I can buy... I already missed the immediate boat on crypto
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206
So what do we call phase 1? Fed lending to Banks at 0%? Fed excepting Muni's as security from primary delears? Or is that Phase 0? Bottom line is if we are talking about the millions losing their jobs and unable to pay their rent how does that help? It doesn't. So does a $1000 UBI check? Well yes a $1000 UBI check will hopefully pay some of your rent and buy some of your groceries. BUT at the end of 1 or 2 months that doesn't make your job come back. They are not going to issue UBI checks for 6 months. Also giving a small business and loan in reality does nothing other than kick the can down the road for most business's. Is their business going to double to enable them to pay back that loan? I fear not. Probably a good time to buy Amazon!
I think we sell off Sunday night as short term max panic hits. Wouldn't be surprised if Monday is the short term low and that we get a short term V shaped bottom. But I think 2-3 weeks down the road people start seeing the actual damage, which stimulus packages may help in months or even years but definitely not weeks. All those restauants and stores are going to be gone and probably never coming back. Hence in the medium term we eventually go much lower.
FULL DISCLOSURE: To contradict my theory I've sold nothing in my externally managed investment management accounts and am actually also long indexes in my trading accounts! I am not currently short vol though. I will also say that my 'long index buy and hold trading account' is actually positive on the year so I'm doing something right!
I've been following this thread for the past several weeks. Great information. I have to admit that I only finished less than 10% of the posts. But I already learned a lot. I plan to start doing something similar in the near future. So kudos to everybody who contributed to this thread.
I have a question regarding to the recent oil price crash. /CL dropped from around 45 on 3/6 to now about 22. I'm wondering if anyone here was selling puts on /CL and caught off-hand by this price crash. And I'd like to know, if you did sell /CL puts, how you responded to this change to mitigate the damage. I think this would be a great learning experience for us new comers.
Ron, please excuse my curiosity, your options are 51 days from expiration, I have been wondering what is your feeling regarding the QE stimulus and do you considering buying more of puts at lower prices and/or rolling them further in time?
