I did have $66 Puts that I adjusted to $63 Puts early in the week and those got way too close to the money today! Luckily, oil has rebounded a bit so I think I'll be OK with a tolerable loss from the adjustment this month.
Predictions based on either fundamentals or technicals are always challenging, but I'd agree that CL will probably keep heading back up once the banking issues quiet down. The Fed rate announcement may cause a ripple. However, there's plenty of time left in the month to tinker.
Good news for out Puts over the weekend! Another few days and I will close out the 49s I sold on 3/16 then adjust some gold calls that are getting a little hot.
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Any hope for NG to rally beyond last year's highs?
Now that OPEC is limiting supply, will NG rally?
What would be some of the hidden variables for an amateur like me?
Please comment.
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Never say never, but NO! Unless something really crazy happens elsewhere in the world! US is awash in gas. Production is up. Storage is much fuller than normal, and demand is down. Gas in west Texas is selling for pennies... literally!
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I agree with what @SMCJB posted. Additionally, CL and NG are not correlated, just anecdotally but look at the past day, CL up 6% while NG is in the dumps down 5%. Season Algo has correlation data if you are interested. Also, I am not sure if he frequents anymore but there was a trader, @ron99 who started this thread that is focusing on NG now (from observing his twitter). Following him on twitter, Ronh999 I believe that is his handle for more info.
Jonathan
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Broker: Primary Advantage Futures. Also Marex (old ED&F) and Tradestation
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
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Sure. April Waha settled 42c last night and Permian 52c. That's actually up from last week. In bid week (Mar 27-29) April Waha traded as low as 0. For next month/May23 both Waha and Permian settled 53c last night. Very different that the $2 you see printing for Futures/Henry Hub.
* Permian refers to the El Paso Pipeline Permian Basin delivery point and Waha to the Waha Hub also within the Permian Basin. Both of these points are in West Texas, around Odessa (of Friday Night Lights fame) & Midland
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