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iPhone release on Verizon!! Urgent!!
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Created: by tderrick Attachments:2

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iPhone release on Verizon!! Urgent!!

  #31 (permalink)
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cory View Post
worth a shot.
my prediction, Tuesday comes, amateurs keep buying and pros keep selling, price doesnt change, amateurs start to sell, pros keep selling, price goes down. By Wednesday it opens down amateur start a selling stampede, pros start buying, price moves up slowly...

Oh... I like that insight.

Hey.... I think you just called me an amateur!


... how true


AJ
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  #32 (permalink)
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I think you're underestimating how heavily a Verizon iPhone is discounted in both company's share prices. This isn't anything new - the market isn't just figuring out about this. There's been talk about this for YEARS. While there still might be some opportunity there, you need to understand the risk/reward in this situation... or have an iron stomach to muscle through the stress. Shorting AT&T? Did you see the Atrix release at CES? I don't believe in basing my decisions on a single product (I wait for a larger catalyst), but this isn't going to hurt AT&T by any means.

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  #33 (permalink)
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Is it too late to take this whole thread back? lol

Thank god my trader sensibilities won over my gambler angst.

I need to learn more before I pull the trigger. I knew you guys would set me straight.


Thanks to all for the insight on how the pro's will work against the amateurs in this upcoming battle.


AJ
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  #34 (permalink)
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tderrick View Post
Is it too late to take this whole thread back? lol

Thank god my trader sensibilities won over my gambler angst.

I need to learn more before I pull the trigger. I knew you guys would set me straight.


Thanks to all for the insight on how the pro's will work against the amateurs in this upcoming battle.

Better saying that than getting stung on a trade.

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  #35 (permalink)
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Moderator Note
This seems to be a duplicate of this thread:


https://futures.io/options-cfd-trading/7572-iphone-release-verizon-urgent.html

I am going to merge the two together. They were created very close together, same topic.

Mike

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  #36 (permalink)
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I hope you are right. I'm a big Apple fan, I bought and sold numerous times Apple shares, even holding some of them for over 2 years but then selling them, and re-entering at a higher price again.

I don't think there is a stock of a company of that size that has been evaluated so wrong. Apple is going to be the biggest USA company soon, now they are number 2. They have so much cash and have no loans or any credit, they own all their buildings and patents.

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  #37 (permalink)
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tderrick View Post
OK.... I'm definitely in over my head....

There is not one term I recognized in that statement. lol

Perhaps you can answer two things for me...

Why is a move not expected and ... what caused the sell off of VZ Thursday and Friday?

Thanks so much for your input!

Also... I have no margin set up to sell. I am only cash buy at this point. An experiment at best...
I'm feeling more stupid as this progresses... ha!!



Well, when you are trading options, you are trading implied volatility. Think of options as insurance and the implied volatility as the insurance premium. When things become uncertain, the insurance premium goes up.

When you look at the implied volatility over the next three expirations, they are all within a point of each other. If there was a short term catalyst that was expected to move the market, say the front month IV was 5 or 6 points higher then the next expiration then a short term move is expected and priced into the market.

Over the last 6 months, IV has range has been about 14 to 23, moving up from 15 a month ago. It has been 31, but that was a while ago. I think a lot of punters are buying OTM calls as a bet.

I would say sell the spread, take the IV fall of a few bucks and be on your way before earnings on the 25th.

Jan 6 was a dividend by the way.

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  #38 (permalink)
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tderrick View Post
So you would just go long with a direction trade?
Is the straddle used as a hedge against risk?

tia

Let's do simple math, for a long Straddle, strike=36, expiration Mar 18 2011:
- you buy 1 Call and 1 Put, cost is 1.26+1.31= $257 before commission.
- if on Mar 18 2011, VZ quotes $40:
-> Call 36 value = $400
-> Put 36 value = $0
-> your gain is $400 - $257 = $143
- if on Mar 18 2011, VZ quotes $30:
-> Call 36 value = $0
-> Put 36 value = $600
-> your gain is $600 - $257 = $343
- if on Mar 18 2011, VZ quotes $36:
-> Call 36 value = $0
-> Put 36 value = $0
-> your loss is $0 - $257 = -$257

Your upper breakeven point is strike price of long Call + net premium paid, so 36+2.57 -> 38.57
Your lower breakeven point is strike price of long Put - net premium paid, so 36-2.57 -> 33.43
That means: if VZ is not moving more than $2.57 before March 18th, your spread will lose money.

This is a simple case, at expiration date...

Like @traderwerks, I would sell the spread, but as the OP is a an options newbie, my advise would be to paper trade first.
Unlike @Fat Tails, I don't think a Short Butterfly is a good idea for a newbie, too many legs .

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  #39 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Moderator Note
This seems to be a duplicate of this thread:


https://futures.io/options-cfd-trading/7572-iphone-release-verizon-urgent.html

I am going to merge the two together. They were created very close together, same topic.

Mike


Sorry for this, Mike.

I'm always trying to run before I can walk.


AJ
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  #40 (permalink)
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epiphany


So, the consensus is that I'm not going to outsmart anyone by betting on a long break out, giving me the ability to place a down payment on a Shelby Cobra.

How bitterly sobering...

Seeing as options have been traded since the Tulip Crash, I suppose there are a few tricks to learn before I jump in.

Back to school it is. Paper Trade

Thanks to all...



I will be in the corner with my dunce cap on. Studying...


AJ
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