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I currently hold the following short options positions:
(LCJ C129, LCQ P100)
I took profit on both trades, and currently hold no short option position in Live Cattle.
LHM P88
The only short option position in the meat markets is this close to the money put option. I had sold them a little bit in the money for $1400 each. The trade will be profitable as long as the underlying future is above 84.5 at the time of expiration. I intend to take profit when 75 % of the potential profit are reached.
KCH P1
Bought back some shorter dated puts with a small loss, and "rolled" them into the March contract.
Why the March contract ? There are several major events that could take care of higher coffee prices. 2019 is an off-year in Brazil, blooming period in Brazil in September / October is a high risk period (like every year), and the Vietnam crop in November should be smaller than the 2018 crop. All these events will take place before the expiry of this option. COT data is bullish. I intend to take profit at 25 %.
At my "targets" I usually place intraday limit orders. In case of changing fundamentals or unexpected price behaviour I might exit earlier.
Currently the majority of my positions are futures or future spreads.
Would it be too personal to ask if you could post the prices you entered each trade at? This would give people like me, who are still learning about commodities, as to what is an acceptable entry point for various short trades.
Sometimes I post my entry prices, like for the wheat trade yesterday. But often I do not, and there is a reason for it: I do not want anybody to blindly enter my trades for his / her account. I do not offer a service for customers, and I do not intend to offer such service. I make enough money via trading. But I am happy to answer questions of new traders to help them avoiding mistakes and to improve.
My trades should give you an idea what to look at, and my trades should give you an insight that there are always enough trades to enter. No problem if you miss one.
My trades often are correlated with each other. If you have studied this thread you will have read quite often that it is important for me to have a balanced account. I might enter a trade to re-balance my account, but - as your account is different - it would not make any sense for you.
In case you are interested in the entry price for a specific trade, please feel free to ask.
Best regards, Myrrdin
PS: I am surprized about the small number of questions in this forum ...
I have entered a trade for the short NGN C2.7-2.9 spread yesterday at 0.24 and took profit today at 0.12 (50 %).
Today I sold the NGU P2.25-2.0 at 0.34. In my opinion, the low for NG is more or less in for the near future. I placed an order to buy back the spread at 25 %. But I might decide to buy back earlier depending on the development of fundamentals.
I agree. But my remark is not limited to this thread and to recent weeks. It is my impression that new traders generally are very hesitant to ask questions. Many of them are waiting to receive information without any contribution of themselves. I consider good (!) questions as valuable contributions to this forum. (I consider all questions to be good, if the answer cannot be found easily via Google or via reading the thread ...)
I'm glad this thread is becoming more active again. I look at the forum on most days, and have noticed also that it's become much quieter than normal. I look mainly at the 'Selling options on Futures', 'Diversified Options Selling' and the 'Commodities Futures Trading' forums. I would love to ask more questions, but to be honest, I don't want to appear a nuisance.
I had a very successful intro to commodities last year, where most trades were profitable. However, this year has been the opposite. A lot of my trades have resulted in large losses. For reference I'm mostly now trading outright futures with a long option as a hedge. I lost on KC, HE, NG, EUR, GF etc, and so am taking a step back for a bit before I get more active again.
I am not keen to do naked strangles (had a disaster on SPX/FTSE strangles in 2016, and still hurting), so want to do limited risk trades only (credit spreads, iron condors, future+option etc). Currently, I am out of ideas, or if I am honest, too frightened to take a commodity trade, so have been watching from the sidelines.
Your NG credit call spread worked out very well. And the newly opened P spread makes sense (from a technical point of view; NGU is the lowest its been for the last 5 years).
