In the next days I am planning to sell ZSH8 (March '18) P860.
According to the longterm seasonals we should have the low beginning of the October.
Also the CoT data indicates that commercials tend to expect higher prices.
The chinese market is closed this week, so I would expect demand picking up again next week.
The chart is not giving a clear trend to me, though the price is historically quite low.
So I will only start with a small position, possibly increasing it in the forthcoming days.
Bid is currently
at 2 5/8
Cordier&Grossman expect a rangebound market to the end of the year and will do strangles.
Thus, I am willing to sell calls on spikes as well if there is enough DTE.

The next USDA Report will be published on October, 12th. The October Report is among the more important reports as the first (more or less) reliable figures for the crop size will be published. I suggest to keep lot sizes small for short options for corn or beans, as this report can be a market mover.

Do not underestimate the move very cheap options can make on a rise of volatility.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Many thanks for the advice.
Yes, I see this as a bit risky and will risk not more than 0,5% of the account, with ample margin.

What do you think about selling LHZ7 calls?

According to Zaner, the December contract is overvalued in comparison to the cash market.

Ron's seasonal data is mixed (below). last year October was a low point in price, but the years before it fell from October.

I have some trouble doing any chart analysis here; I understand having a continuous chart does not make too much sense, since the different contract months are behaving differently.

Yes, to me it seems that LHZ7 are overvalued from a S&D point of view. I would sell these options at current prices. LHZ should test contract lows in November.

Best regards, Myrrdin

When hog prices test their lows you could consider selling LHG puts. They seem to be undervalued from a S&D Point of view.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Many thanks.

BTW, do you prefer discussions here or on the FB group, or both?

I prefer to discuss here, as there is a larger number of contributors.

And I prefer to discuss in the English speaking section for the same reason. I am sure our colleagues from the US will accept our average knowledge of the English language.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I prefer to discuss here, as there is a larger number of contributors.

And I prefer to discuss in the English speaking section for the same reason. I am sure our colleagues from the US will accept our average knowledge of the English language.

Best regards, Myrrdin