Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
I consider to sell corn and beans puts below the market, but in my opinion prices will move down a little further. In almost all years these commodities showed significant upwards moves in spring.
Furthermore, I consider selling CL puts below the market, but I will also wait for lower prices.
LCM calls and LHM puts might be interesting in the next couple of weeks.
But I am well invested and do not have a hurry to enter further trades.
Best regards, Myrrdin
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Here is an interesting podcast regarding the current and future situation in oil.
The interviewee Art Berman is an oil driller, so his perspective is quite interesting.
When listening to the podcast it is worthwhile to download the charts as pdf from the same site.
Wednesday is Cold Storage Report, Friday is Cattle on Feed Report, end of March is quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report. These reports can come in as expected, but they also can end up in limit moves. In my opinion, the options with a value of 10 to 50 % were not worth the risk.
I do not expect Bonds to move much higher. I consider this as a short term trade and will exit rather soon.
Corn price should move upwards as a consequence of the ratio between beans and corn price, which favours more acreage for beans, good exports, and weather premium to be built in for pollination period in South Americas and planting period in Northern Americas. As weather forecasts for summer, although not very reliable at this time of the year, predict rather cool and wet weather, I do not expect extremely high prices, and, thus, prefer to sell puts.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,384
Thanks Received: 10,206
Slight tangent...
Having traded energy contracts for 20 years, I can almost count the number of times I've seen a limit move on my fingers*. So the question is, due to the large number of limit moves in Ags, do you think they should widen the limits, or do the markets need the cooling down periods?
* There are reasons for this. A major one I believe is that the first time that NYMEX called a trading halt due to a limit move, but you could still trade on EnronOnline, NYMEX changed their rules pretty quickly!
Reasons for the more frequent limit moves in the ags in my opinion include:
Essential reports in the energies are published on a weekly base, whereas these reports are published on a monthly base or less for the ags. The most important report for hogs and pigs is published quarterly. The less frequent a report is published the larger is the potential for a significant deviation of the forecast.
Volume is significantly lower in the ags. Hogs and Cattle have a daily volume of 30,000 or 50,000 contracts, respectively, whereas CL has a daily volume of 1,000,000 contracts.
Crude Oil is a global market with global production and global consumption. Some of the ags, eg. meats traded at the CME, are more or less small local markets. When BSE appeared in the US in the early 2000s, demand broke down entirely. It is hard to imagine consumption of crude oil in the US to be reduced in the same way from one day to the other.
In my opinion, in small markets limits help to cool down these markets, and it is good we have them. But for some commodities - eg. live cattle - they could be wider.
I would really like to give many thanks to all that have contributed to this post. It took me awhile to read all the pages. However I learned much. I am getting back into this an thinking selling options may suit me better than buying or open contracts in many situations.
Thanks a lot all.
Regards Preston
It also appears to me that one must pay more attention to fundamentals when selling options rather than buying them. If If that is not true someone please correct me.
