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I trade a lot of NG lately and has been lucky so far with sizeable gains from directionless trades with slightly downward risk bias. It's been one of the more puzzling and dismal winter for NG. Mild weather may or may not be priced in already but as has been witnessed lately, weather forecast and price can flip flop in matters of day or even hours. And as of latest more bearish weather revisions for 2/24 and higher end of season storage forecast, you may get your wish for Monday more downward move. Don't know if $ 3 will hold or not. I may have triggered NGM7P2.5 on friday too fast.
Hopefully longer term it will reverse and follow the seasonal trend higher into spring/ early summer.
Last year the low was in the first half of March, and the lowest weekly close was exactly 0.3 below the closing price of the week ending February 12th. This is why I would prefer to enter at a price of approx. 3.0 for the June contract or after a clear reversal.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
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The big variable in NG for me is LNG exports and not something I have a strong handle on. LNG exports are stronger than I expected, and getting stronger.
