Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
"S American weather leans negative with better rain prospects for Parana early next week while temp forecast for Argentina eases up."
But of course Karen is correct with her statement "No reason to be alarmed - just aware. There are several months left and although fcst thru early Dec is promising, things can 180 quickly."
Bought back the S strangles today with a loss of approx. 60 %, after they opened higher on a bearish weather report for South America.
Instead I increased the number of positions for the 5*CZ7-2*SX7 spread, and intend to buy further spreads when SX7 prices turn back down.
The reasons, why I prefer these spreads:
The increase of soybean prices in my opinion is caused by short-term Chinese buying. This should affect the November contract less than the January and March contracts. There are crops in South America and the US before the November contract expires.
I have no idea where the US$ is going. It turned down recently, and in case this move accelerates, soybean prices could move upwards further. But the US$ influences corn as well as beans, thus the spread should not be influenced.
I like selling call options when I expect a sidewards move or a small move downwards. The relation CZ7 - SX7 shows extremely low values for this time of the year (and one year until expiry date), and there are good reasons to assume it will move upwards strongly. The arguments and the profit potential are written down in the Grains & Beans thread.
