Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Sell KCH calls (eg. KCH C200) on a minor upwards move. The small crop of Robusta coffee should be priced in. Last week we had a bearish signal in the weekly chart. COT data looks bearish, too.
Sell LHG puts on a move downwards towards the current contract low.
@ron99 for coffee would u sell outright or employ the same ratio strategy as ES? Have to check if there is enough premium. I might join you guys but with a straight spread
Depends on what u are trying? Which expiry? If u have enough time and you are looking for a bounce fine then why not do ATM as a spread? If u don't want the short strike ITm at all then u are too close
Here are tables from 20140922 when KC went up from 179 to 221 in 17 days. They all use 6X IM.
This one shows one short KCz4c237.5 and a KCz4c230c262.5 spread. The naked short went on margin call on 20141006. The spread had a high of 70.4% of acct used for IM and a lower draw down.
The naked short IM increased 213% on 20141006. The spread IM increased 66%.
This one shows one short KCf5c270 and a KCf5c250c270 spread. The naked short went on margin call on 20141006. The spread had a high of 51.6% of acct used for IM and a lower draw down. Notice that this is lower than the Dec spread.
The naked short IM increased 221% on 20141006. The spread IM increased 41%. This Jan spread IM increase is less than the Dec spread IM increase which was at 51 DTE on 20140922 vs 84 DTE for Jan.
This one shows a KCz4c230c262.5 spread and a KCz4c230c280 with two longs. They acted similar for this situation. So in this case I don't see the need for two longs.
In average, seasonal charts for the LHG show a strong move downwards during the first half of December. This move is very strong in years with a relatively high price and weak or non-existing in years with a low price (eg. LH10 or LH16).
This year LH price is extremely low. Thus, I am not sure if there will be a strong move downwards until end of the year. But I assume that the October double low will hold.
I sold a first lot (20 % of standard lot size) of the LH P46, and placed further orders for the LH P45, P44, P43, P42. Average price for all orders is 1.25 ($ 500 per option).
So the analysis would have shown we want to be in the Jan spread since the Max drawdown/IM increase would have been less since it had 84 DTE when opened
Also the delta increase from about -4.29 to under -11 rather than having the Dec spread which increased to over -25
and it took about 50 days to reach 50% profit target
What I could not figure out (and i am sure i dont know how to read it).. what was the delta for the Jan spread for the 250 and for the 270 to come up with delta of -4.29 at entry?
