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Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
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Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
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Just curious but why? Fed rate raise concerns?
With VIX 40% above 2-3 week lows and ES 2-3% below 2-3 week highs, if you were trying to bottom pick, this could be it. Of course this also could be the start of the next dump but thats the danger of bottom picking!
The one thing is: The options are close to expiry, and they are rather close to the money. If the September low breaks, it could get ugly. Profit potential and potential for a loss are not balanced anymore.
The other thing is a more mental one: I hate it if trades that were profitable get into minus. These options had an unrealized profit of approx. 40 %, and I was close to buy them back. I do not want them to turn into losers.
The big size of the crop should be priced.
Weather in South America is ok now, but there is a long way to go until the crop is brought in.
The current price ratio of beans and corn looks like an invitation to farmers to extend the acreage for beans.
Seasonals show upwards until end of March.
COT data is bullish.
But I do not expect large price moves until December.
Bought back the CF C3.7, when the corn price moved above the October high. These options were sold as protection for the CZ7-CZ8 spread (and some wheat futures). It looks like the corn price shows a positive reaction to a neutral report.
Will hold the CZ7-CZ8 longterm, and the wheat outrights shortterm, using a tight stop.
Can somebody give tips on seasonality for Natural Gas February contract?
My subscription to MRCI ended yesterday, i may switch to SeasonalAlgo, however the interface for the latter is less friendly for new user.
I am contemplating selling NGG7 P2.5 - 2.3 ~ 2 delta for 0.1 per spread.
Approximate monthly ROI 2.7%
I have been reading reports throughout the web, fundamentals appear to me moderately bullish.
Although, timing is not the best while i had been thinking about this trade for too long and by the moment the price may have reached a short term top.
Arguments for the trade are moderately bullish fundamentals and high volatility which makes selling options more profitable, although if win.
According to MRCI, the path of NGG is clearly downwards until expiry for the 5-, 15-, and 26 years average.
For 2001 there is a good correlation compared to this year, and it went upwards (!) until expiry. But I would not bet on this single year. (Although you could check if there are similarities of fundamentals between these two years.)
The NGH-NGF spreads - bear spreads - for 14th of October until 7th of December were profitable every single year since 2002.
In my opinion there are better seasonal trades around (eg. the NGH-NGF spread).
