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LHq futures quit trading on the 10th trading day of August.
I found out that LHv almost always goes up from the 8th trading day of August to the 10th trading day of August. Usually up 2.000. It worked 7 of the last 8 years and the only year it didn't work was 2014 when LH futures were abnormally high at 100.
The last 5 years LHv then dropped in price after the 10th trading day of the month.
LHz & LHg also go up the 8th to 10th trading day of August. They don't always drop after the 10th trading day.
It will be interesting to see what happens after the crop report at noon ET Friday. I went long option strangles on Corn and Soybeans. Bought ZCu6p315, ZCu6c330, ZSu6p960, ZSu6c1070.
Seasonals for large crops differ from seasonals for small crops.
There is an old saying among the grains & beans traders: "Small crops get smaller, big crops get bigger." (This refers to crops that look big in summer, will be even bigger in fall.
The ability to produce a seasonal chart of all years with large (small) crops helps a lot to trade successfully.
I am bearish hogs at this time of the year. Sold the LHZ6-LHG7 spread at -4.2 yesterday, and expect it to move to -6 or -8, as in most of the recent years.
Shorting the spread should have made money in 2013, in 2014 only if entered in early July or September (2014 was an untypical year due to desease problems, causing extremely high prices for hogs), and has lost money in 2015 (in this year the spread was at the usual low of -6 in early August).
@ron99 : Please see my private message regarding the detailed charts.
This spread is not a spread recommended by MRCI to enter on this date and to liquidate on that date.
But in most of the last 10 years the spread could be sold some time in summer, and bought back in fall with a profit. In almost all years the spread reached values of -6 to -8 some time between September and the expiry of the December contract, and between these values I intend to buy it back.
I like to sell it some time in summer at a price significantly above -6. As always it is important to keep lot size small enough.
