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I am bearish grains for the next couple of weeks, as long as there are no major weather problems. Thus, I bought back the WU P440, and added some WU C550.
Best regards, Myrrdin
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Does anyone here do put/call credit spreads? If so I had a Q regarding how to calculate potential p&l and max gains/losses. For example, is this correct or am I missing something:
Potential max loss = -$1,137.50 [$2,500 (50 points * $50pp) - $1,362.50 (net credit)]
Does this method limit your potential losses and exposure or will volatility skew it and add pressure to your margin requirements past the -$1,137.50 loss between the 2050 and 2100 strikes?
Bought back the SM C9.50 at a loss of 100 % . Yesterdays USDA Report was considered neutral to bearish, but still prices went up. Reaction to a report is more important than the report. Thus, Soybean prices should move up further, as long as weather does not have a severe bearish influence. What is happening ? In my opinion, traders do not care for the bearish arguments (huge old crop) anymore - these are already priced in. Now they trade regarding a weather premium for the planting phase, and they take into account the ongoing discussion about the change from El Nino to La Nina, which could lead to dryness and heat in this summer. I do not intend to enter further trades in the grains and beans, until the crop is more or less defined in July (corn) and August (Soybeans).
For the same reason I bought back the Wheat calls at a profit of approximately 50 % for the first lot and 10 % for the second lot, which I had sold recently. Although wheat fundamentals are very weak, prices might move up together with corn and beans. In case of a severe upmove of prices, I might consider selling September calls between 600 and 700.
I also took profit on the July Silver strangle of approx. 50 %, and sold a further strangle for the September contract (SIU P12.5, C24).
Regarding meats, I added a lot of LCK P120. Cash prices should move upwards for the next couple of weeks, as weather should get better.
Finally, I sold a lot of CTZ C67. With stocks large enough for 1 year of usage, and an economy which does not look very strong, cotton prices should move sidewards at best.
Forgot to mention that I sold the LHM P74, to form a strangle togeher with the LHQ C84. I had sold the August Option end of March. Profit of this open trade is approx. 40 %.
I assume Hog prices going more or less sideways for a while.
Please be aware that today after the close the Cattle on Feed-Report will be published. On the one hand, volatility is high, which is nice for option sellers. On the other hand, prices could end limit up (or down) on Monday.
I am currently on vacation, and will not post all my trades here.
Looking back at the past couple months, I should have continued selling ES puts according to my concept.
Thus, I used the setback of the Indices to start again. I am short the ES
I sell naked ES puts (approx. 100 DTE, approx. $400 per option) at the end of each week, and buy them back at 50 %. I will be out if the S&P moves below the 200 dma.
