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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio
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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

  #871 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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manuel999 View Post
Are you also surprised that troubles in the ME with Quatar seem to have so little impact on price?
In the past I would have thought this will be a good reason to have a 5% spike or so, but now: nothing.

The market share of Quartar for oil is rather limited, thus, any reductions in export could be covered by someone else. OPEC countries currently limit their exports to keep prices at an acceptable level, but they certainly could export more in case Quatar is unable to export. Furthermore, the exports from Quatar currently obviously are continuing.

Quartar is more important as an exporter for Natural Gas.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #872 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Thanks @manuel999. I have a macrovoices subscription but am behind in all my listening but this was really good. Art Berman is a very good interview, and you weren't joking they really are bullish the back end, and I think they could be right. Unfortunately timing is everything. I don't think buying the back end will be as easy as he says, as I think theres a lot of people looking to do that on any dip.

That's kind of what happened with Brent, it's so small that the index is now BFOE, Brent Forties Oseberg & Ekofisk. WTI production will decline but it will be replaced by something else.
I must have missed that bit. I don't have a PhD so he obviously wasn't talking about me. having worked with literal rocket scientists though I can say they definitely 'can' have a problem seeing the forest through the trees.

On a related note though, I spent several years as a crude swaps dealer, making markets for producers, and I can tell you this, I never ever meet a producer who thought prices were going down, they all think prices are going to the moon!

BTW, I follow TankerTrackers on Twitter, who visually track movements of oil.
They say that the export number of the EAI report from today is too low. They are quite upset about that.

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  #873 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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@manuel999 all this talk of backwardation has obviously scared this market.
In the last 5 days z7-z9 has gone from 18c backwardation to $1.44 contango and a week early on May 24th the backwardation was $1.08 higher. So that's a $2.70 move in 10 days!

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  #874 (permalink)
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Selling Puts on bonds now?

I am planning so sell Puts on ZB or ZN.
Reason:
- chart looks quite bullish
- Seasonality is bullish
- CoT: commercials go short again, which is a good sign

Any reason you see against selling Puts on bonds now?
Would you wait for the FOMC meeting first?

Thanks.

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  #875 (permalink)
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manuel999 View Post
I am planning so sell Puts on ZB or ZN.
Reason:
- chart looks quite bullish
- Seasonality is bullish
- CoT: commercials go short again, which is a good sign

Any reason you see against selling Puts on bonds now?
Would you wait for the FOMC meeting first?

Thanks.


The seasonal data according to MRCI for the ZN looks clearly bearish for the next two weeks (and bullish thereafter). This is even more true fore the most recent 5 years. I would like to add that, according to my experience regarding seasonals for the Financial Futures, they are not as reliable as for other futures.

According to my source, COT data looks bearish for the ZN and the ZB. Commercials are short, large specs are long.

For a comment on the chart there are better expers than myself.

I do not intend to sell puts on the ZB or the ZN in the near future. There are better trades around.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #876 (permalink)
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Many thanks.

So granular are you watching the seasonals? This is good to know.
You are right, then it would make sense to wait some weeks.

In the CoT the Commercials seem to be contratian to price.

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  #877 (permalink)
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I just received this special Hightower report on grains.

Attached Thumbnails
Diversified Option Selling Portfolio-grains_20170606_high.pdf  
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  #878 (permalink)
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manuel999 View Post

So granular are you watching the seasonals?

To be clear: I do not always look very granular at the seasonals. But in the Financials, seasonals are often caused by fix dates (eg. tax dates), whereas dates for weather changes for growing commodities are not that exact.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #879 (permalink)
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Currently I hold the following positions in the short options portfolio:


LHQ P70 / C88
LHV P58 / C78
Longterm trades. I intend to exit the October options at 50 %,I have not yet decided on the August options.

LCV P100 / C136
In my opinion, the highs are in, and LC prices will move more or less sidewards. But there will be strong moves upwards and downwards.

CTZ C85
Took profit for the CTZ C90 and rolled downwards. Intend to take profit at 50 %. Good marketings, but very large new crop not only from the US.


NGV P2.5
Took profit on some NG calls. Intend to buy back at 50 %.

GCG P1100 / C1500
Trade suggestion of James Cordier. Intend to buy back at 50 %.

ESU P2150
Intend to buy back at 50 %.


Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #880 (permalink)
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myrrdin View Post
Currently I hold the following positions in the short options portfolio:


LHQ P70 / C88
LHV P58 / C78
Longterm trades. I intend to exit the October options at 50 %,I have not yet decided on the August options.

LCV P100 / C136
In my opinion, the highs are in, and LC prices will move more or less sidewards. But there will be strong moves upwards and downwards.

CTZ C85
Took profit for the CTZ C90 and rolled downwards. Intend to take profit at 50 %. Good marketings, but very large new crop not only from the US.


NGV P2.5
Took profit on some NG calls. Intend to buy back at 50 %.

GCG P1100 / C1500
Trade suggestion of James Cordier. Intend to buy back at 50 %.

ESU P2150
Intend to buy back at 50 %.


Best regards, Myrrdin

Technically the GCG trade looks good to me.
In fact I'm holding some GCV puts myself.
What i have a hard time with is how can one gather sound fundamentals on metals?
Well currency's are very similar in that respect however I have recently done well with the pound an the euro. I am entertaining the thought of selling some more puts in the sept contract.

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