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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio
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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

  #731 (permalink)
Elite Member
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myrrdin View Post
Asian first quarter cocoa grindings were 19.2 % above year ago level, trade was looking for a 10 % increase.

Northern America grindings came in roughly in-line with trade estimates.

Interesting regarding supply is information that many beans from Ivory coast did not meet size and quality standards for export.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Is this public info?
If yes, where do you get it?

Thanks.

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  #732 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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manuel999 View Post
Is this public info?
If yes, where do you get it?

Thanks.

This information is part of professional services, eg. Hightower Report.

If you want to receive it free of charge use Google. The first two links in my list:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-20/it-s-time-to-load-up-on-chocolates-before-cocoa-prices-rebound

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/04/20/business/20reuters-cocoa-grind.html?_r=0

and many others.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #733 (permalink)
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myrrdin View Post
Added to my long hogs position by selling the LHM P66. A turn up in pork values and seasonals should support. (Although we currently have to be careful regarding seasonals for hogs: Price action did not follow the seasonals in recent weeks. Especially there is no low in these days.)

I liquidated the LCQ P94, taking a profit of 50 to 60 %, with the intention to sell again at a lower level. Market looks overbought.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Do you use any tools for evaluating seasonality?
I have the MRCI Seasonality pdf I consult, but this may not be very uptodate anymore.

I looked into seasonalgo.com, that looks good. One can use ZC for free, but so far I shied away from doing a full abo, since I still trade small and I am not yet sure if the costs are justified for a samll account.

Thanks,
Manuel

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  #734 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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manuel999 View Post
Do you use any tools for evaluating seasonality?
I have the MRCI Seasonality pdf I consult, but this may not be very uptodate anymore.

I looked into seasonalgo.com, that looks good. One can use ZC for free, but so far I shied away from doing a full abo, since I still trade small and I am not yet sure if the costs are justified for a samll account.

Thanks,
Manuel

I use MRCI data for many years, and these data help me a lot. In addition to seasonals for outrights and spreads they show seasonals for volatility, which is essential for option sellers.

Others here favour seasonalgo.com .

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #735 (permalink)
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myrrdin View Post
I use MRCI data for many years, and these data help me a lot. In addition to seasonals for outrights and spreads they show seasonals for volatility, which is essential for option sellers.

Others here favour seasonalgo.com .

Best regards, Myrrdin

Do you the normal "12-Month Subscription to MRCI Online"?

Thanks,
Manuel

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  #736 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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manuel999 View Post
Do you the normal "12-Month Subscription to MRCI Online"?

Thanks,
Manuel

Yes, I do not buy additional data from MRCI. And I do not use their consulting services.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #737 (permalink)
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Anyone selling Aug Calls on 6E? 1 TO 1 ratio? Or would a short Strangle be a better choice for the second set of French Elections?

Thought please
Thanks
Babak

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  #738 (permalink)
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rajab View Post
Anyone selling Aug Calls on 6E? 1 TO 1 ratio? Or would a short Strangle be a better choice for the second set of French Elections?

Thought please
Thanks
Babak

1. I rarely sell options on currency futures. I am not successful in this business (see some of my older posts.).

2. I definitely would not sell Euro calls before the French elections. (The final election will be in two weeks.) In case the supporters of the European Union win, the Euro might move upwards strongly.

3. If I were convinced the supporters of the European Union would win (loose), I would have bought (sold) the Euro outright during last week. But Brexit vote and US vote demonstrated that forecasts can be wrong. Thus, I stay on the sideline. There are more interesting trades for me than speculation on the result of elections.

4. I do not understand "1 to 1 ratio" .

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #739 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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myrrdin View Post
1. I rarely sell options on currency futures. I am not successful in this business (see some of my older posts.).

2. I definitely would not sell Euro calls before the French elections. (The final election will be in two weeks.) In case the supporters of the European Union win, the Euro might move upwards strongly.

3. If I were convinced the supporters of the European Union would win (loose), I would have bought (sold) the Euro outright during last week. But Brexit vote and US vote demonstrated that forecasts can be wrong. Thus, I stay on the sideline. There are more interesting trades for me than speculation on the result of elections.

4. I do not understand "1 to 1 ratio" .

Best regards, Myrrdin

A currency trader - I am not one of them - might think about the idea to wait for a bounce of the Euro after the (second) election in France, if it occurs. And then sell Euro calls. Often political influences on future prices do not last Long. The COT data is bearish.

Of course it is possible that the Euro reaches its high during this week and volatility comes down, as the result of the first round of the French election was quite clear. But there remains the risk of a surprize in the second round, as we learnt in recent elections (Brexit, US president).

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #740 (permalink)
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myrrdin View Post
A currency trader - I am not one of them - might think about the idea to wait for a bounce of the Euro after the (second) election in France, if it occurs. And then sell Euro calls. Often political influences on future prices do not last Long. The COT data is bearish.

Of course it is possible that the Euro reaches its high during this week and volatility comes down, as the result of the first round of the French election was quite clear. But there remains the risk of a surprize in the second round, as we learnt in recent elections (Brexit, US president).

Best regards, Myrrdin

I'd say today the soaring in the EUR (on an expected outcome) it shows that selling options on currencies is risky business.

I also do not trade currencies, for me there is too much manipulation going on.

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