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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio
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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

  #651 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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iwanjon View Post
I understand what you meant. Lately IV hasn't been too friendly to us options sellers. We can only get what's in front of us, just a few opportunities here and there. LH, ZS may not be that bad right now, also some currencies futures like 6B, 6C but they are too risky for my taste.

I do not trade currency options any more, as I was not continuously successful.

I have no idea where soybeans are headed to - I currently do not sell these options. There are good arguments for higher and lower bean prices.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #652 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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I am currently holding the following positions in the short option portfolio:

LCJ C124
LCJ P106
LCQ P90

LHM C90

CTN C90

ESJ C2375 (entered according to a suggestion by Carley)

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #653 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Looking to sell some Natural Gas puts some time in the near future, probably in March.

Mild weather should be almost factored into prices. Seasonals are neutral to upwards from March until May. COT data is neutral.

I will not sell without some downwards move before. Intend to sell the NGM P2.4 (P2.5 ?) for approx. $500 if given the chance.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #654 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Indonesia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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myrrdin View Post
Looking to sell some Natural Gas puts some time in the near future, probably in March.

Mild weather should be almost factored into prices. Seasonals are neutral to upwards from March until May. COT data is neutral.

I will not sell without some downwards move before. Intend to sell the NGM P2.4 (P2.5 ?) for approx. $500 if given the chance.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I trade a lot of NG lately and has been lucky so far with sizeable gains from directionless trades with slightly downward risk bias. It's been one of the more puzzling and dismal winter for NG. Mild weather may or may not be priced in already but as has been witnessed lately, weather forecast and price can flip flop in matters of day or even hours. And as of latest more bearish weather revisions for 2/24 and higher end of season storage forecast, you may get your wish for Monday more downward move. Don't know if $ 3 will hold or not. I may have triggered NGM7P2.5 on friday too fast.
Hopefully longer term it will reverse and follow the seasonal trend higher into spring/ early summer.

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  #655 (permalink)
Elite Member
rutherford NJ
 
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Been thinking of same trade seasonal a favor it though with a warm winter could see lower prices see last year spring low was lower than fall 2015


Sent from my iPhone using futures.io mobile app

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  #656 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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jokertrader View Post
Been thinking of same trade seasonal a favor it though with a warm winter could see lower prices see last year spring low was lower than fall 2015


Sent from my iPhone using futures.io mobile app

Last year the low was in the first half of March, and the lowest weekly close was exactly 0.3 below the closing price of the week ending February 12th. This is why I would prefer to enter at a price of approx. 3.0 for the June contract or after a clear reversal.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #657 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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The big variable in NG for me is LNG exports and not something I have a strong handle on. LNG exports are stronger than I expected, and getting stronger.

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  #658 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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SMCJB View Post
The big variable in NG for me is LNG exports and not something I have a strong handle on. LNG exports are stronger than I expected, and getting stronger.

I believe there are new LNG exports processing facilities coming online this year.

Right now exports are 2.1 Bcf per day. They were basically zero in 2015.

Here is my chart.

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See Energies-NG Weekly Data at
https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870#!/

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  #659 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
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NG dry production is down 2.6 Bcf/day from last year

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But because of lower residential demand in Jan

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And lower demand by electricity plants

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Total supply minus total demand is better this year, 2017, than last year

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Data from Natural Gas Weekly Update

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  #660 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
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I think selling NG puts is a good idea. But I think the time to sell is a few weeks away.

First we need this coming warm spell

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NOAA Climate Prediction Center

to flush out the longs who have not decreased much with the drop in NG futures price this year

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See DCOT at https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870#!/

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