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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio
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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

  #581 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
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I don't know if this will happen again but 4 of last 5 years ES has had significant drops from 7th to 14th.

This chart shows change in ESh futures from 7th to 14th.

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https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870#!/

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  #582 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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myrrdin View Post
Just sold a half lot of the GCJ P1000 at 0.5, which is now the only short option position I hold.

Seasonals show sidewards / downwards for years with a similar behaviour than 2016.

Inflation should rise in early 2017.

Rise of interest rate in December should be priced.

Intend to add to the position by selling the GCJ P950 at 0.5 if given the chance.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Bought back the Gold puts with a small profit of 16 %. Gold showed weakness the recent two days, although Crude moved strongly upwards, and the US$ moved downwards yesterday. Looks to me as if Gold could move further downwards.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #583 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
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Sold NGh7p250p230 spread today. I know I am late to the party but I doubt NG is dropping much anytime soon with the cold weather forecast for the rest of Dec.

Surprisingly IM for this spread is only $109. I sold it for $90. Being ultra conservative I am using 10X IM because of the low IM.

If I exit at 50% drop in 30 days the monthly ROI would be 3.0%.

The risky side of me bought NGh7c600 today. We'll see if in next 2 weeks I get enough of a pop in NG to make these long calls make a profit. Three weeks ago they were 0.010. Now they are trading at 0.050.

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  #584 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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ron99 View Post
Sold NGh7p250p230 spread today. I know I am late to the party but I doubt NG is dropping much anytime soon with the cold weather forecast for the rest of Dec.

Surprisingly IM for this spread is only $109. I sold it for $90. Being ultra conservative I am using 10X IM because of the low IM.

If I exit at 50% drop in 30 days the monthly ROI would be 3.0%.

The risky side of me bought NGh7c600 today. We'll see if in next 2 weeks I get enough of a pop in NG to make these long calls make a profit. Three weeks ago they were 0.010. Now they are trading at 0.050.

I also thought of buying NGH calls, but did not pull the trigger early enough. Now it i too late for me ...

Good luck !

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #585 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Here is how the NGh contract performed when US Dec temps were below normal.

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Here is how much US avg temps in Dec were below normal
2009 -3.04 degrees
2010 -0.21
2013 -1.62

This year looks to be tracking similar to NGh10 and NGh14. Those were the coldest years of these 3. NGh14 went up 40 cents from 12/8 to its' peak. NG inventory in Nov 2013 was right at the 5 yr avg before the cold wave hit.

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  #586 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Sold the ESF C2190 according to a suggestion of Carley.

Bought back the ESG P1850 with a profit of approx. 50 %.

Sold the ESH P1900 as a replacement.

Currently I feel well with the strangle, but I prefer to buy back the calls sooner than later.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #587 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Sold the LHG C66.

I had planned to sell LH puts, but only got filled on one small position. Meanwhile, prices moved up strongly.

I intend to add puts at a lower price of the outright to achieve a strangle.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #588 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Myyride, Ron or others. Do you guys hedge your positions with other commodities? historic expample-in these not so historic times?what do you consider small position% wise. And how would you take the hedge of if any?

THANKS A BUNCH
BABAK

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  #589 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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rajab View Post
Myyride, Ron or others. Do you guys hedge your positions with other commodities? historic expample-in these not so historic times?what do you consider small position% wise. And how would you take the hedge of if any?

THANKS A BUNCH
BABAK

Yes, I try to hedge my positions. The main reason is to gain some independence from US$ and the general economic developments.

One way is to sell strangles. I currently hold a strangle in the ES.

Another way is to be long one commodity, and short the other. I currently hold long corn futures and short soybean futures.

A normal short option position is in the order of magnitude of 3 % of the account size. A small position is half of it or less.

If you look through this thread you will find many more details on these Topics.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #590 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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rajab View Post
Myyride, Ron or others. Do you guys hedge your positions with other commodities? historic expample-in these not so historic times?what do you consider small position% wise. And how would you take the hedge of if any?

THANKS A BUNCH
BABAK

I do not hedge other than doing spreads instead of naked options.

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