Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

October 14th, 2016, 09:52 AM

Jerard

I see your point, thanks. May ask you where would you look for fundamentals on 2001 year?

The most important influence on NG price at this time of the year is weather. You could check weather reports of this year. But I doubt that this is of any help as we are not in a position to predict weather perfectly.

Best regards, Myrrdin

October 14th, 2016, 10:08 AM

ron99

The seasonals are bearish but that always depends on the weather. Colder is bullish, normal or warmer than normal is bearish.

Production is down but inventory is above 5 yr avg.

Interesting that IM is only $94. If you use 6X IM and exit at 50% drop in net premium at 30 days then the ROI is 6.5%.

I'd call DCOT bearish because specs are more long than normal.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

Here is what a spread that was similar did last year. Lost a lot of money.

Referring to NG spread, do i interpreting correctly that spread was sold at ~0.11 while at settlement price (?) 2.180
the short leg premium was 0.5, whereas long leg became worthless? Although, it is interesting that spread was profitable at many points throughout the graph... and how could long leg be worth more than short leg?

Or was it 2:1 spread?

October 14th, 2016, 10:23 AM

Jerard

Referring to NG spread, do i interpreting correctly that spread was sold at ~0.11 while at settlement price (?) 2.180
the short leg premium was 0.5, whereas long leg became worthless? Although, it is interesting that spread was profitable at many points throughout the graph... and how could long leg be worth more than short leg?

Or was it 2:1 spread?

On Oct 13, 2015 (yellow vertical line) futures were 2.869 and the spread was 0.016.

The spread is the green line. It was at 0.130 in mid Dec when futures dropped below 1.900. A large loss.

October 15th, 2016, 10:40 AM

myrrdin

The most important influence on NG price at this time of the year is weather. You could check weather reports of this year. But I doubt that this is of any help as we are not in a position to predict weather perfectly.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Want to say big thanks, Myrrdin! Spent several days and studied this thread A to Z. IMO this is a very great way for a beginner to learn.
Thanks and best regards, Romandris

October 15th, 2016, 10:57 AM

romandris

Want to say big thanks, Myrrdin! Spent several days and studied this thread A to Z. IMO this is a very great way for a beginner to learn.
Thanks and best regards, Romandris

You are welcome. Please feel free to ask questions or discuss your considerations for own trades.

Best regards, Myrrdin

October 17th, 2016, 03:46 PM

Does this match your analysis? Gonna sell puts on a leg down .. since i am hoping for a bounce in Nov.. thoughts?

October 17th, 2016, 04:23 PM

jokertrader

Does this match your analysis? Gonna sell puts on a leg down .. since i am hoping for a bounce in Nov.. thoughts?

My analysis suggests to sell cattle puts on a leg down, but my analysis was severely wrong recently regarding cattle puts ...

According to MRCI the seasonals should move upwards from early October until 20th of October, than move downwards, and move upwards again after approx. 10th of November. But the daily chart does not correlate well with the seasonal chart this year.

Best regards, Myrrdin

October 18th, 2016, 09:11 AM

myrrdin

My analysis suggests to sell cattle puts on a leg down, but my analysis was severely wrong recently regarding cattle puts ...

According to MRCI the seasonals should move upwards from early October until 20th of October, than move downwards, and move upwards again after approx. 10th of November. But the daily chart does not correlate well with the seasonal chart this year.

Best regards, Myrrdin

PS: Friday after the close the Cattle on Feed-Report will be published. Volatility will rise towards this report.

These reports are hard to predict. It could make sense to wait until after the report with the trade entry, or to keep lot size small.

October 19th, 2016, 01:57 PM

myrrdin

Rolled the CLF C58-63 to the CLG C63-68, taking a loss of approx. 100 %.

Size of the new position is a little bit more than the original position. That means the only target is now to end up with a minor profit on this trade.

Best regards, Myrrdin

You still got your position on?
Where do you thing we are heading?
Would you say CLG C60-65 is too close before the OPEC meeting?

October 19th, 2016, 02:02 PM

rajab

You still got your position on?
Where do you thing we are heading?
Would you say CLG C60-65 is too close before the OPEC meeting?

I sold the Feb 65-70 spread for 20 cents on Oct 13th.

Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio