Diversified Option Selling Portfolio (Page 47) - Options on Futures | futures.io
futures.io futures trading
 

Go Back   futures.io

> Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Options on Futures


Diversified Option Selling Portfolio
Started:September 6th, 2015 (11:22 AM) by myrrdin Views / Replies:26,150 / 581
Last Reply:Yesterday (01:20 PM) Attachments:38

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike
     

Reply
 38  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread

Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

Old September 26th, 2016, 11:51 AM   #461 (permalink)
Elite Member
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 679 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,031 given, 550 received


myrrdin View Post
Just a reminder: Friday the USDA crop report will be published at 11 am (Chicago Time) / 18.00 (Central European Time).

I intend to by back the corn calls before the report, and to hold the soybeans calls and the cotton calls. COT data for corn is very bullish, and a surprising result could cause funds to cover their shorts.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Bought back the corn calls with a profit of 15 - 20 %.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
     

Old September 26th, 2016, 12:58 PM   #462 (permalink)
Elite Member
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 679 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,031 given, 550 received

Rolled down the SF C11 to the SF C10.4 and took profit of approx. 40 % on the C11.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
     

Old September 27th, 2016, 01:41 PM   #463 (permalink)
Elite Member
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 679 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,031 given, 550 received


Added the LCG7 P100 to the LCZ P100, and now hold a full position.

According to MRCI the seasonal chart for the cash price clearly shows upwards, both futures are significantly undervalued compared to cash.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
     

Old September 28th, 2016, 04:06 PM   #464 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: ThinkorSwim Tradestation
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, GC
 
Posts: 13 since Nov 2015
Thanks: 32 given, 6 received


myrrdin View Post
Added the LCG7 P100 to the LCZ P100, and now hold a full position.

According to MRCI the seasonal chart for the cash price clearly shows upwards, both futures are significantly undervalued compared to cash.

Best regards, Myrrdin

This may sound silly, but how do you determine whether these futures are underpriced? I am short puts on live cattle as well based on a recent recommendtion by Carley.

From reading some of the past comments you've posted, it appears that a large part of the discussion is centered around the correlation between cash cattle and futures, and when that discount/premium gets much more than whjat it has been historically, one could look into opening a trade.

My question is whether you'd ever view this the other way around. As in, can it be that he cash cattle itself is under/overpriced? Rather than assuming that cash cattle is traded correctly? Based on my very limited understanding of the meats, future pricing is based in large part to the placement of feeder cattle on feed and therefore get an idea with regards to what the cutout supply will look like at that time, compared to projected/historic/seasonal demand patterns at that time.

Just curious whether you had any view on this. If I'm totally off my base please let me know. Thanks!

Reply With Quote
     
The following 2 users say Thank You to ys91 for this post:
     

Old September 29th, 2016, 05:01 AM   #465 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
westhills california US
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TOS
Favorite Futures: FOREX,STOCKS,FUTURES
 
Posts: 28 since May 2015
Thanks: 25 given, 5 received

Futures Edge on FIO
Hey myrrdin

Where are you on CL?
Do you see any attractive trades you would place ? I thing you said you were short calls a while a go?

anyone esle?

Reply With Quote
     

Old September 29th, 2016, 06:33 AM   #466 (permalink)
Elite Member
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 679 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,031 given, 550 received


rajab View Post
Hey myrrdin

Where are you on CL?
Do you see any attractive trades you would place ? I thing you said you were short calls a while a go?

anyone esle?

Yes, I am still short the CLF C58-C63 spread. I rolled into this spread after taking profit on the CLF C64.

I intend to hold this spread until a close above the August high.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
     

Old September 29th, 2016, 06:46 AM   #467 (permalink)
Elite Member
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 679 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,031 given, 550 received


ys91 View Post
This may sound silly, but how do you determine whether these futures are underpriced? I am short puts on live cattle as well based on a recent recommendtion by Carley.

From reading some of the past comments you've posted, it appears that a large part of the discussion is centered around the correlation between cash cattle and futures, and when that discount/premium gets much more than whjat it has been historically, one could look into opening a trade.

My question is whether you'd ever view this the other way around. As in, can it be that he cash cattle itself is under/overpriced? Rather than assuming that cash cattle is traded correctly? Based on my very limited understanding of the meats, future pricing is based in large part to the placement of feeder cattle on feed and therefore get an idea with regards to what the cutout supply will look like at that time, compared to projected/historic/seasonal demand patterns at that time.

Just curious whether you had any view on this. If I'm totally off my base please let me know. Thanks!

You are touching a very important point.

For many years future prices followed cash prices rather reliably. If you had an idea were cash prices should be when the future expires, and futures were over- or undervalued compared to this price, you could sell puts or calls, and make money. The only remaining problem were sudden production problems, eg. deseases.

This correlation seems to have changed about a year ago, and it took me some time to realize it. (If you have a look at my older entries in this thread you will see a number of losses for cattle options.) I do not know the reason. Some People argue that it has to do with the future contract. Others have the opinion that cash price is determined based on a very small amount of cattle. May be, but these things have not changed recently. But it is obvious that the difference between cash and cattle price is not as reliable as some years ago.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
     

Old September 29th, 2016, 10:57 AM   #468 (permalink)
Elite Member
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 679 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,031 given, 550 received

USDA September Stocks Report will be out tomorrow, 11am Chicago Time. I do not consider this report to be a major market mover, but you never know ...

Tomorrow's USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report, published after the close, will be of major importance for livestock & grains.

Large moves in hog price and perhaps in corn price may follow on Monday.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
     
The following 2 users say Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
     

Old September 29th, 2016, 11:46 PM   #469 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,323 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,902 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


myrrdin View Post
You are touching a very important point.

For many years future prices followed cash prices rather reliably. If you had an idea were cash prices should be when the future expires, and futures were over- or undervalued compared to this price, you could sell puts or calls, and make money. The only remaining problem were sudden production problems, eg. deseases.

This correlation seems to have changed about a year ago, and it took me some time to realize it. (If you have a look at my older entries in this thread you will see a number of losses for cattle options.) I do not know the reason. Some People argue that it has to do with the future contract. Others have the opinion that cash price is determined based on a very small amount of cattle. May be, but these things have not changed recently. But it is obvious that the difference between cash and cattle price is not as reliable as some years ago.

Best regards, Myrrdin


Quoting 
Cash sales negotiated closer to slaughter accounted for about 21 percent in 2015, down from 52 percent in 2005.

USDA requires meat packers to report online cattle auction deals | Reuters

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:
     

Old September 30th, 2016, 02:56 PM   #470 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: ThinkorSwim Tradestation
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, GC
 
Posts: 13 since Nov 2015
Thanks: 32 given, 6 received


Cattle limit down today. Looking at the report, I'm not sure I see the reason for a massive downward move like this. Anyone has any insights to understanding this much of bearishness?

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to ys91 for this post:
     

Reply



futures.io > Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Options on Futures > Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

NinjaTrader 8: Features and Enhancements, Tips and Tricks

Dec 6
 

Al Brooks: Stop Losing when a Good Trade goes Bad, Correcting Mistakes

Elite only
 

Trading Technologies: Algo Design Lab hands-on

Dec 13
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Webinar: Option Selling with and without insurance w/Carley Garner Big Mike Options on Futures 50 March 24th, 2015 06:52 PM
Portfolio Trader no erocla MultiCharts 1 November 27th, 2014 11:56 AM
"DTS" Diversified Trading System - Anybody out there!? ShaunG Vendors and Product Reviews 2 July 30th, 2014 06:54 AM
Diversified Trading Systems soch Vendors and Product Reviews 3 February 18th, 2013 10:12 PM
Portfolio Construction dgresens Psychology and Money Management 3 October 25th, 2012 04:33 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:38 PM.

Copyright © 2016 by futures.io. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 
no new posts

Page generated 2016-12-03 in 0.14 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.163.147.69