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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio
Started:September 6th, 2015 (11:22 AM) by myrrdin Views / Replies:26,377 / 581
Last Reply:December 2nd, 2016 (01:20 PM) Attachments:38

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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

Old September 16th, 2016, 10:59 AM   #441 (permalink)
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Jerard View Post
Is your position still on? Yesterday drop in GC was accompanied by S&P500 sharp move up, today however both sliding downwards. The vast majority of markets in red today.

I see February contract trading at ~1315 at 2.40pm GMT, so your position must be around ~1% out of the money.

I sold GCG7 P1200

I still hold the position, and intend to hold it unless there is a close below 1300. Indeed Gold looks weak today, and I am not very optimistic about this position. On the other hand, I am short calls several other commodities (CL, S, CT). Thus, I still make profit in a situation of decreasing commoditiy prices.

Currently I prefer the close to the money calls. Volatility is relatively low, but, especially in the metals, might rise very quickly. In this case, FOTM Options suffer more than close to the money options.

Good luck !

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old September 16th, 2016, 11:16 AM   #442 (permalink)
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Sold a small lot of the CZ C3.5 to replace the CZ C3.6 liquidated with a profit recently.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old September 16th, 2016, 06:17 PM   #443 (permalink)
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Research used


Hi all, I am contemplating subscribing to MRCI for more research as I start to get more accustomed to the different markets. Most of my trades thus far have been in ES and CL, and a few others have been based on hightower reports I receive as part of trading with DeCarley. I was hoping to get opinions from the board (esp. the seasoned traders Ron99, Myrrdin, Jokertrader, etc and others!) on MRCI and/or other research providers where I can get consolidated fundamental and technical research to complement the research from hightower. With a day job, consolidating and reviewing reports from USDA, EIA, etc is time consuming and to be honest, I might not even know what to focus on everytime.

Another concern is spending ~$500 annually on research when my trades tend to be small (2-4 lots usually) so also looking to justify the costs. Have you had experience using them? I'd appreciate the feedback.

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Old September 16th, 2016, 09:23 PM   #444 (permalink)
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ys91 View Post
Hi all, I am contemplating subscribing to MRCI for more research as I start to get more accustomed to the different markets. Most of my trades thus far have been in ES and CL, and a few others have been based on hightower reports I receive as part of trading with DeCarley. I was hoping to get opinions from the board (esp. the seasoned traders Ron99, Myrrdin, Jokertrader, etc and others!) on MRCI and/or other research providers where I can get consolidated fundamental and technical research to complement the research from hightower. With a day job, consolidating and reviewing reports from USDA, EIA, etc is time consuming and to be honest, I might not even know what to focus on everytime.

Another concern is spending ~$500 annually on research when my trades tend to be small (2-4 lots usually) so also looking to justify the costs. Have you had experience using them? I'd appreciate the feedback.

Seasonalgo.com is way better than MRCI. I have had both.

All it takes is one trade that makes more than $400 to pay for the data for a year.

Hightower is about the best for consolidated info. John Kemp of Reuters is good for energy info. Either search on Google for him or follow him on Twitter.

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Old September 17th, 2016, 05:22 AM   #445 (permalink)
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ys91 View Post
I was hoping to get opinions from the board (esp. the seasoned traders Ron99, Myrrdin, Jokertrader, etc and others!) on MRCI and/or other research providers where I can get consolidated fundamental and technical research to complement the research from hightower.

I am happy with MRCI data, partially, because I use it for many years, and got accustomed to it. A nice additional feature for option sellers is the volatility section which includes seasonality of volatilities. But I do not take their trade suggestions without a detailed check.

I also like the Hightower Report as it covers all relevant commodities. But I like to have a second source for each commodity I trade.

Some brokers have excellent material on selected commodities for their customers. Depending on your account size, you might think about opening a second (small) account to receive this information. I like the grain reports I receive from RJO.

There is a free monthly report on softs by the ICE:

https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/ICE_Monthly_Softs_Fast_Facts.pdf?sp...pReportId=ODYwNjczNzg2S0

And, as suggested by Ron, John Kemp gives interesting information on energies.

There is a commodities section in this forum. It might be interesting for you to discuss your trade ideas there.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old September 21st, 2016, 03:18 PM   #446 (permalink)
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Bought back the GCG P1300 with a profit of approx. 20 %.

Intend to sell again at lower price.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old September 21st, 2016, 07:42 PM   #447 (permalink)
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myrrdin View Post
I the volatility section which includes seasonality of volatilities

Does the report say "summer is the time to be short VIX"?


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Old September 22nd, 2016, 02:21 AM   #448 (permalink)
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suko View Post
Does the report say "summer is the time to be short VIX"?


No, in July and August there is a seasonal tendency for the volatility of the S&P to rise.

But, as I often stated: This alone is no reason to be short or long VIX in summer.

The main value of these charts for me is that they show critical growing times for grains, beans or softs.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old September 22nd, 2016, 02:57 PM   #449 (permalink)
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myrrdin View Post
Sold a first lot of CTH7 C80.

The current upmove of the Cotton price seems to me to be a technical bounce. Fundamentals are bearish. Intend to sell 2 further lots at higher prices.

Best regards, Myrrdin


Hi @myrrdin

Are you still holding the positions? Do you see the upcoming rains (and current rains in some areas) in TX, India as something that can effectively change the fundamentals? Cotton has had a pretty decent rally past few days. Or do you see any other factors influencing this? I don't know if any demand factors have changed as much in past couple of days.

Thanks!

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Old September 22nd, 2016, 04:26 PM   #450 (permalink)
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ys91 View Post
Hi @myrrdin

Are you still holding the positions? Do you see the upcoming rains (and current rains in some areas) in TX, India as something that can effectively change the fundamentals? Cotton has had a pretty decent rally past few days. Or do you see any other factors influencing this? I don't know if any demand factors have changed as much in past couple of days.

Thanks!

Yes, I still hold the position.

There is still a number of bearish arguments:

Large specs are close to there maximum long position, small specs also hold a strong long position. This makes me believe that the upside is limited.

Seasonals are clearly bearish until the second half of November, if you exclude the CTH11 contract from the study. This year showed very high prices, and was not typical.

Yesterday and today outside markets were strong and the US$ was weak, and still CT did not move up strongly.

This years imports of China were down 46 % compared to last year. Australian crop could double this year compared to the poor crop from last year.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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