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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio
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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

  #411 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Exited ESx6p1700p1460 2 longs. 38 days held. 2.8% monthly ROI using 6x.

Exited ESx6p1710p1460 2 longs. 37 days held. 3.2% monthly ROI using 6x.

Replaced them with ESz6p1750p1520 2 longs sold for 2.50.

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  #412 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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Reduced my exposure in the Live Cattle by buying back the LCZ P99 (loss of 50 %) and FCV P126 (80 %).

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #413 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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Sold the CLF C58/63 spread at 0.30 .

Intend to exit above the August high.

Best regards, Myrrdin


Last edited by myrrdin; September 2nd, 2016 at 12:42 PM.
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  #414 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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Sold the CZ C3.60 before the close yesterday to balance my CZ7-CZ8 spreads I had bought earlier.

The spread should move upwards until end of March (seasonality), but I expect that bottoming will take some time.

Wish all of you in the US a wonderful Holiday Weekend.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #415 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Riga Latvia
 
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Diversification

If I need to choose only 3 markets for trading, what do you recommend:
1. Es mini
2. Energy (crude oil or natural gas)
3. ????

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  #416 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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uuu1965 View Post
If I need to choose only 3 markets for trading, what do you recommend:
1. Es mini
2. Energy (crude oil or natural gas)
3. ????

The question is not easy to answer, and the answer will be time-dependent.

In recent years there were months with a strong correlation between the ES and CL. On the other hand, the ES was good for selling puts (significantly higher price of OTM puts than for calls), and CL was good for selling calls. CL shows nice seasonals.

NG looks like a good choice as it is almost independent from the $. Currently there are not many imports and exports for the US. This might change in future, when more NG is traded around the world. But: NG price depends to a high degree on the weather (temperatures), and weather is hard to predict. March contract is well known for its huge moves, when a cold snap moves into the US. CL price depends on more influencies, which might cancel out each other (eg. US $, politics in the oil producing countries, temperatures, traffic)

Among grains and beans, all of them have their merits. But not all year around. There are times when weather is the only major influence on price, and your options rise in value significantly within a few days. And there are times when volatility comes down after a weather market, and interesting trades might develop. Grains and beans show nice seasonals, which helps.

Among the softs, I prefer coffee. Option prices - namely for calls - for very far OTM strikes often are high. But also coffee has its weather markets. Currently we enter the critical blooming period in South America.

Among the meats I would prefer hogs. Live cattle recently showed some tendency to correlate with the Indices.

I stopped selling options in the currencies, and I rarely sell options in the metals. In case you like the metals I would prefer Gold.

Whereas it does make sense to permanently be short ES puts, I do not think such concept does make sense for the commodities discussed above. Ron also discussed this in his thread.

What should you finally look at ? You should chose commodities you like to spend time with. You will have to read a lot about supply & demand, seasonals, weather, COT data etc. You should consider for which commodities you have
good sources or are able to get them.

If I had to make a choice today, I would take ES, CL, W, and KC.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #417 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Riga Latvia
 
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Posts: 93 since Jan 2013
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myrrdin View Post
The question is not easy to answer, and the answer will be time-dependent.

In recent years there were months with a strong correlation between the ES and CL. On the other hand, the ES was good for selling puts (significantly higher price of OTM puts than for calls), and CL was good for selling calls. CL shows nice seasonals.

NG looks like a good choice as it is almost independent from the $. Currently there are not many imports and exports for the US. This might change in future, when more NG is traded around the world. But: NG price depends to a high degree on the weather (temperatures), and weather is hard to predict. March contract is well known for its huge moves, when a cold snap moves into the US. CL price depends on more influencies, which might cancel out each other (eg. US $, politics in the oil producing countries, temperatures, traffic)

Among grains and beans, all of them have their merits. But not all year around. There are times when weather is the only major influence on price, and your options rise in value significantly within a few days. And there are times when volatility comes down after a weather market, and interesting trades might develop. Grains and beans show nice seasonals, which helps.

Among the softs, I prefer coffee. Option prices - namely for calls - for very far OTM strikes often are high. But also coffee has its weather markets. Currently we enter the critical blooming period in South America.

Among the meats I would prefer hogs. Live cattle recently showed some tendency to correlate with the Indices.

I stopped selling options in the currencies, and I rarely sell options in the metals. In case you like the metals I would prefer Gold.

Whereas it does make sense to permanently be short ES puts, I do not think such concept does make sense for the commodities discussed above. Ron also discussed this in his thread.

What should you finally look at ? You should chose commodities you like to spend time with. You will have to read a lot about supply & demand, seasonals, weather, COT data etc. You should consider for which commodities you have
good sources or are able to get them.

If I had to make a choice today, I would take ES, CL, W, and KC.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Thanks a lot for such exhaustive answer.
Trading any commodities (except ES mini) ask extra time ...
Vielen dank nocheinmal!

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  #418 (permalink)
Elite Member
rutherford NJ
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Qtrader
Broker/Data: Amp and Optimus and CQG
Favorite Futures: Mainly NG Some GC, ZS,CL
 
Posts: 378 since May 2013
Thanks: 294 given, 137 received

this looks interesting


uuu1965 View Post
Sold LEZ P100/94 spread at 1.125.

Just looked at Live cattle and its fallen off the cliff.. not sure why..
my assumption is seasonally Live cattle should rally into the end of the year - still researching if this is correct

Question: Some option prices on LE in TOS seem strange.. and some seem normal
like Dec 100 put is 3.75/4.00 (bid/ask) vs Dec 98 put which is 0.575/3.125 and then goes back up for 98 put..

Wonder if i can use this anomaly to create a spread and whether i will ever get filled?

Also for the LEZ P100/94 i am seeing 2.05 now. So if both our assumptions are right.. good time to sell right?

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  #419 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
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jokertrader View Post
Just looked at Live cattle and its fallen off the cliff.. not sure why..
my assumption is seasonally Live cattle should rally into the end of the year - still researching if this is correct

Question: Some option prices on LE in TOS seem strange.. and some seem normal
like Dec 100 put is 3.75/4.00 (bid/ask) vs Dec 98 put which is 0.575/3.125 and then goes back up for 98 put..

Wonder if i can use this anomaly to create a spread and whether i will ever get filled?

Also for the LEZ P100/94 i am seeing 2.05 now. So if both our assumptions are right.. good time to sell right?

Currently Live Cattle is not traded. Trading begins at 8.30 am (Chicago time). Outside of trading hours bid / ask do not make sense.

You could have a look at the closing prices from yesterday at the CME site.

Live Cattle prices come done because of the low and falling cash price which surprizes me. Holiday business obviously was worse than expected. I will probably get out of the trade today.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #420 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 901 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,302 given, 881 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Exited the LCG P96 and the FCV P122.

Probably cattle prices now move upwards, but a stop is a stop.

I do not intend to sell puts in LC or FC in the near future, as I currently do not really understand what is going on in the cattle markets.

Best regards, Myrrdin


Last edited by myrrdin; September 7th, 2016 at 02:20 PM.
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