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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio
Updated: Views / Replies:52,396 / 1,069
Created: by myrrdin Attachments:74

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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

  #391 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
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Bought back the KCH C240 with a profit of 30 %.

Intend to sell again at a higher price. We are moving into the blooming period, and changing weather forecasts might result in a higher volatility.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #392 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
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Bought back the CTZ C80 with a profit of 60 %.

Intend to sell again at a higher price.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #393 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Bought back the LCV P106 with a loss of approx. 120 %.

Intend to sell again after a reversal.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #394 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
hudson ohio summit
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: tradestation
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Posts: 5 since Aug 2016
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Positions

Myrrdin,

Do you intend to post your trades when you initiate them. I'd like to track your ideas. It is greatly appreciated.

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  #395 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
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Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
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meg10 View Post
Myrrdin,

Do you intend to post your trades when you initiate them. I'd like to track your ideas. It is greatly appreciated.

I am not quite sure what you mean. I post the trades after I received a fill on the same day or (in rare cases) the day after. I am not sitting in front of a computer all day.

I will use this opportunity to explain what I want to achieve with this thread for traders with limited experience in option selling:

I want to demonstrate that it is possible to operate an option selling account, which is sufficiently diversified to reduce clump risk. I want to discuss criteria for selecting suited commodities, and for entering / exiting trades. I want to show warning signs. And try to answer questions in regard to option selling. In one sentence: I want to give traders with little experience in option selling a basis to check, if this strategy is suited for them, and to improve quickly.

I do not intend to publish trades that can be followed exactly by others. And I do not intend selling my trading signals now or in the foreseeable future. I prefer making money via trading and not via selling a newsletter.

Additionally I like discussing considerations for trades, and other issues related to option selling, with everybody here. Thus, all trade suggestions, contributions to criteria for selecting, entering, and exiting trades, and principal questions regarding option selling are highly welcome.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #396 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Sold the LCZ P99 (suggestion Carley) and the LCG P96 to replace the LHV puts liquidated last week.

Future prices are significantly lower than cash prices, and futures are oversold. I expect prices going sidewards / upwards from here.

Best regards, Myrrdin


Last edited by myrrdin; August 29th, 2016 at 01:58 PM. Reason: Corrected LH --> LC
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  #397 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Riga Latvia
 
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myrrdin View Post
Sold the LHZ P99 (suggestion Carley) and the LHG P96 to replace the LHV puts liquidated last week.

Future prices are significantly lower than cash prices, and futures are oversold. I expect prices going sidewards / upwards from here.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Sold LEZ P100/94 spread at 1.125.

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  #398 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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meg10 View Post
Myrrdin,

Do you intend to post your trades when you initiate them. I'd like to track your ideas. It is greatly appreciated.

In case you want to track how an option selling account works without risking your money, I suggest to open a paper account and trade short option trades for a year. Enter your trades, perhaps based on some of my trades, discuss your considerations for trades in this thread, and gain some experience. (Be assured that trading your own money will again be a different story.)

For your information: There are many trades I do not publish, as they are not short option trades. But they may be related to my short option trading, eg. to achieve a USD-neutral Portfolio or for other hedging activities.

Please feel free to ask questions. There are some very experienced traders around, who will try to give you answers.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #399 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Found an interesting statistic regarding long periods of the S&P index moving less than 1 % per day (end of day).

The current period of 36 days is not the longest - there are 7 longer periods of up to 79 days (1995) since 1990.

It is interesting to note that the first weeks after such periods since 1990 (12 events) never show drastic moves of the S&P index. There are only 2 cases where prices moved down more than 5 % within two or three months after the event.

The figures are from a paid subscription. Thus, I do not want to get into more details.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #400 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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myrrdin View Post
Found an interesting statistic regarding long periods of the S&P index moving less than 1 % per day (end of day).

The current period of 36 days is not the longest - there are 7 longer periods of up to 79 days (1995) since 1990.

It is interesting to note that the first weeks after such periods since 1990 (12 events) never show drastic moves of the S&P index. There are only 2 cases where prices moved down more than 5 % within two or three months after the event.

The figures are from a paid subscription. Thus, I do not want to get into more details.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Very interesting. I can't replicate the data exactly but I get something very similar. Agree with the current 36 days, but show a high of 100 consecutive days back in 1995. Also show a period of 398 consecutive days with moves of less than 1% back in 1964/65. Also agree that this isn't predictive of a major market move to come, R squared's all ~ 0.01 for the simple regressions I ran. (Streak length vs 20 day lowest low etc).

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