Diversified Option Selling Portfolio - Options on Futures | futures.io
futures io futures trading


Diversified Option Selling Portfolio
Started: by myrrdin Views / Replies:33,550 / 684
Last Reply: Attachments:51

Welcome to futures io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike

Reply
 51  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

  #371 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,452 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 672 given, 4,161 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

LHq futures quit trading on the 10th trading day of August.

I found out that LHv almost always goes up from the 8th trading day of August to the 10th trading day of August. Usually up 2.000. It worked 7 of the last 8 years and the only year it didn't work was 2014 when LH futures were abnormally high at 100.

The last 5 years LHv then dropped in price after the 10th trading day of the month.

LHz & LHg also go up the 8th to 10th trading day of August. They don't always drop after the 10th trading day.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to ron99 for this post:
 
  #372 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,452 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 672 given, 4,161 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Interesting how the seasonals change when prices are high vs low.

Here is the last 9 years for ZSx

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


The average price shows an uptrend for August.

Here are only the years that have prices above 12.00

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Definite uptrend in August.

Here are only the years that have prices less than 11.00

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


No uptrend in August. In fact there is a downward trend that all 5 years followed.

Charts are available here. https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870#!/

It will be interesting to see what happens after the crop report at noon ET Friday. I went long option strangles on Corn and Soybeans. Bought ZCu6p315, ZCu6c330, ZSu6p960, ZSu6c1070.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:
 
  #373 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,452 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 672 given, 4,161 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



ron99 View Post
LHq futures quit trading on the 10th trading day of August.

I found out that LHv almost always goes up from the 8th trading day of August to the 10th trading day of August. Usually up 2.000. It worked 7 of the last 8 years and the only year it didn't work was 2014 when LH futures were abnormally high at 100.

The last 5 years LHv then dropped in price after the 10th trading day of the month.

LHz & LHg also go up the 8th to 10th trading day of August. They don't always drop after the 10th trading day.

LOL so right after I post this, LHv drops 2.000 in one hour. From up 1.500 to down 0.550. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:
 
  #374 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 783 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,145 given, 663 received


ron99 View Post
Interesting how the seasonals change when prices are high vs low.

Definitely.

Seasonals for large crops differ from seasonals for small crops.

There is an old saying among the grains & beans traders: "Small crops get smaller, big crops get bigger." (This refers to crops that look big in summer, will be even bigger in fall.

The ability to produce a seasonal chart of all years with large (small) crops helps a lot to trade successfully.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
 
  #375 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 783 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,145 given, 663 received

Futures Edge on FIO

ron99 View Post
LHq futures quit trading on the 10th trading day of August.

I found out that LHv almost always goes up from the 8th trading day of August to the 10th trading day of August. Usually up 2.000. It worked 7 of the last 8 years and the only year it didn't work was 2014 when LH futures were abnormally high at 100.

The last 5 years LHv then dropped in price after the 10th trading day of the month.

LHz & LHg also go up the 8th to 10th trading day of August. They don't always drop after the 10th trading day.

I am bearish hogs at this time of the year. Sold the LHZ6-LHG7 spread at -4.2 yesterday, and expect it to move to -6 or -8, as in most of the recent years.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
 
  #376 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,452 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 672 given, 4,161 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


myrrdin View Post
I am bearish hogs at this time of the year. Sold the LHZ6-LHG7 spread at -4.2 yesterday, and expect it to move to -6 or -8, as in most of the recent years.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I added LHzg to my seasonal futures charts. I also have LHzj & LHzm.

I'm not seeing being short LHzg working the last 3 years from 8/6 to 9/6. Does my data match yours?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:
 
  #377 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 783 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,145 given, 663 received


ron99 View Post
I added LHzg to my seasonal futures charts. I also have LHzj & LHzm.

I'm not seeing being short LHzg working the last 3 years from 8/6 to 9/6. Does my data match yours?

Shorting the spread should have made money in 2013, in 2014 only if entered in early July or September (2014 was an untypical year due to desease problems, causing extremely high prices for hogs), and has lost money in 2015 (in this year the spread was at the usual low of -6 in early August).

@ron99 : Please see my private message regarding the detailed charts.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
 
  #378 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,452 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 672 given, 4,161 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


myrrdin View Post
Shorting the spread should have made money in 2013, in 2014 only if entered in early July or September (2014 was an untypical year due to desease problems, causing extremely high prices for hogs), and has lost money in 2015 (in this year the spread was at the usual low of -6 in early August).

@ron99 : Please see my private message regarding the detailed charts.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I guess I should have asked what are your beginning and ending dates for the spread.

Reply With Quote
 
  #379 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 783 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,145 given, 663 received


ron99 View Post
I guess I should have asked what are your beginning and ending dates for the spread.

This spread is not a spread recommended by MRCI to enter on this date and to liquidate on that date.

But in most of the last 10 years the spread could be sold some time in summer, and bought back in fall with a profit. In almost all years the spread reached values of -6 to -8 some time between September and the expiry of the December contract, and between these values I intend to buy it back.

I like to sell it some time in summer at a price significantly above -6. As always it is important to keep lot size small enough.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
 
  #380 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,452 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 672 given, 4,161 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



myrrdin View Post
This spread is not a spread recommended by MRCI to enter on this date and to liquidate on that date.

But in most of the last 10 years the spread could be sold some time in summer, and bought back in fall with a profit. In almost all years the spread reached values of -6 to -8 some time between September and the expiry of the December contract, and between these values I intend to buy it back.

I like to sell it some time in summer at a price significantly above -6. As always it is important to keep lot size small enough.

Best regards, Myrrdin

OK I see this is a long term trade. Probably held to Nov.

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > > Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

Spring Grains Outlook w/Sean Lusk @ Walsh Trading

Elite only

FIO Video Journal Challenge featuring NinjaTrader ($2,000+ of prizes)

April

Process above all else w/Anthony Crudele @ Futures Radio Show

Elite only

Machine Learning - Quantitative Trading w/Martin Froehler @ Quantiacs

Elite only

Market Dynamics w/Peter Davies @ Jigsaw Trading

Elite only

Ask Me Anything w/Patrick Rooney @ Trading Technologies

Apr 18

Ask Me Anything w/FuturesTrader71

Apr 19

Machine Learning w/Kris Longmore

Elite only

Market Analysis w/Dave Forss

Apr 25

Introducing iSystems with Stage 5 Trading

Apr 27
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Webinar: Option Selling with and without insurance w/Carley Garner Big Mike Options on Futures 50 March 24th, 2015 05:52 PM
Portfolio Trader no erocla MultiCharts 1 November 27th, 2014 10:56 AM
"DTS" Diversified Trading System - Anybody out there!? ShaunG Vendors and Product Reviews 2 July 30th, 2014 05:54 AM
Diversified Trading Systems soch Vendors and Product Reviews 3 February 18th, 2013 09:12 PM
Portfolio Construction dgresens Psychology and Money Management 3 October 25th, 2012 03:33 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:52 PM.

no new posts
Page generated 2017-03-28 in 0.12 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.205.60.171