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The US$ had its two significant lows this year in May and in June, the S&P its high in June. To me it looks as if the individual commodities show less life of their own, but depend strongly on the US$ and the S&P index. Exception LC, which is less imported / exported than most of the other commodities.
Would be interesting to find out if the correlation between the US$ and these commodities is stronger in the first half of 2016 than in previous years.
Yes, NG currently is low import / export. I do not know about DA - here you are the expert.
I also did not expect a bull year for commodities in 2016. At the beginning of the year,I assumed that the US$ would be much stronger because of the anticipation and the realization of rising interest rates in the US, and constant or lower interest rates in European Union, Japan etc. But these interest rate hikes did not materialize until today, and might not materialize in the near future.
Usually I enter an order to buy back options at a profit of 50 % immediately after the fill. In case the option moves quickly in my direction I take profits early. Especially for options which carry a large risk with them, eg. Natural Gas. A hot weather forecast, and the calls move up again. There is a lot of risk holding an option for several months - and there should be a significant profit expectation.
Sometimes the option moves slowly in my direction or moves the wrong way in the beginning. Before reaching 50 %, the option looks safe, as the fundamentals for the relatively short time until expiration are more or less known. In this case I consider to hold options longer, eg. until a profit of 80 - 90 %. Very rarely I hold options until expiry.
But the rules are not absolute. I am a discretionary trader, and I make individual decisions for each lot of options.
Usually I set the exit criteria at approx. double the entry price. I choose a chart criteria for the underlying future which is close to this condition (or closer, eg. at 120 % or 150 %). I rarely go beyond 200 % (never beyond 300 %), as it would take many successful trades to make up one loser.
I also exit, if fundamentals have changed significantly. Examples are changes in supply & demand, seasonal charts, or COT data.
After exiting, I sometimes „roll“ the trade to a new option. But only after careful study of the fundamentals. And I consider the new trade a new trade. That means the new trade has the same size that the original trade had at its beginning (!). Some books suggest to "roll" a losing trade by opening a new trade with the size of the loser when you buy it back. This can result in too large trades - I do not like this concept.
I am a discretionary trader, and evaluate each trade on its own. Once in a while I go beyond my defined criteria.
