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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio
Started:September 6th, 2015 (11:22 AM) by myrrdin Views / Replies:26,466 / 581
Last Reply:December 2nd, 2016 (01:20 PM) Attachments:38

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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

Old June 28th, 2016, 03:09 PM   #281 (permalink)
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myrrdin View Post
Yes, the chart for July 2012 was one of the arguments not to sell NG calls at current price levels.

What is your definition of "way over priced" ?

Thank you !

Best regards, Myrrdin

Aug up 15 cents today probably just because expiring July up 21.

Eastern half of country below normal temps this week but above normal after that.

High Temperature Departure From Normal | Nat Gas Weather
Climate Prediction Center

July 2012 temps way above normal.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/110/0/tavg/1/7/2010-2015?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

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Old June 29th, 2016, 03:29 AM   #282 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post


But NG futures are getting way over priced today on July expiration day.

Why future price go up so sharply on the expiring day? What mechanism underlying this effect?

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Old June 29th, 2016, 12:02 PM   #283 (permalink)
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uuu1965 View Post
Why future price go up so sharply on the expiring day? What mechanism underlying this effect?

They don't always go up expiration day. It probably depends on how people are positioned with options. If they were short expiring calls that were about to go ITM then they would buy futures to prevent losing money. But that only works if futures don't drop after they purchase them.

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Old June 29th, 2016, 12:21 PM   #284 (permalink)
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Bought back the LHV P100 with a profit of 35 %.

Quick profit, and the options have a long way to go until expiry.

Cash prices might move down after (or just before) the long holiday weekend. Recently future prices moved down sharply on a decline of the cash prices.

I intend to re-enter this trade at lower prices.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old June 29th, 2016, 12:48 PM   #285 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
Sold a small lot of KCZ C2.

Seasonal data as well as COT data is bearish, and we are close to the recent highs.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old June 29th, 2016, 01:14 PM   #286 (permalink)
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I placed orders for the CTZ C75 and the NGV C3.7 just above the market.

Natural gas was already discussed here, it also was a suggestion of Carley at lower prices.

Cotton moved up yesterday on general economic strength and currency issues, but the fundamentals (weather, crop conditions and demand from China, COT data, seasonals) are all bearish.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old June 29th, 2016, 01:26 PM   #287 (permalink)
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The S&P500 moved clearly above ist 200 dma.

Sold the EW3V P1600.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old June 29th, 2016, 02:33 PM   #288 (permalink)
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myrrdin View Post
I placed orders for the CTZ C75 and the NGV C3.7 just above the market.


Was filled on the CTZ C75.

Be careful in case you want to trade CT options. There is a USDA report out Thursday.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old June 30th, 2016, 11:02 AM   #289 (permalink)
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Sold the NGV C3.6 call, following in principal a suggestion of Carley. But I waited for a higher price level, and I prefer the October contract compared to the September.

The chart shows a large reversal in the daily.

I placed a further order for the NGV C3.7 at the same price ($ 400).

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old June 30th, 2016, 04:14 PM   #290 (permalink)
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I'm looking at front month charts for 13 commodities. CL, RB, HO, NG, ES, GC, KC, SB, ZC, ZS, LC, LH, DA.

11 of the 13 have made new highs for this year this month. And 1 of the 2 that didn't, RB, made its high in May. Only LC didn't peak May or June.

That's crazy. And so was that 1.00 drop in CL in 9 minutes today.

Markets are just unpredictable and crazy the last year.

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