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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio
Started:September 6th, 2015 (11:22 AM) by myrrdin Views / Replies:26,114 / 581
Last Reply:11 Hours Ago (01:20 PM) Attachments:38

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Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

Old June 15th, 2016, 12:08 PM   #271 (permalink)
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Sold the ZNU C135.5 according to Carleys suggestion. Details see her newsletter.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old June 17th, 2016, 12:32 PM   #272 (permalink)
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Sold the LCV P100. You find some arguments why I am long cattle below.

Additionally, at this time of the year the October future price is above cash price in most years. Since 1999 (I do not have older figures) only once the October future was more than 1 $ cheaper than cash in the third week of June, that was in 2003 and was related to BSE. Currently the October future is more than $10 below cash.

Thus, in my opinion the potential for lower Prices of the LCV is limited.

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Old June 18th, 2016, 01:23 PM   #273 (permalink)
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myrrdin View Post
Yes, that is how I see it. Last week there was talk that for a very small coffee growing area in the South (less than 5 % of the area) there could be frost during the weekend. This never materialized, and, as you show, temperatures are far away from freezing temperatures. But the coffee prices remain high ...

FYI, this site has some comments and photos about the recent frost events.

Spilling the Beans | Maja Wallengren's blog about everything coffee

I've glanced at it a few times and the author seems to be very certain about higher prices in the future. It's free, so take it with a grain of salt.

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Old June 20th, 2016, 03:07 PM   #274 (permalink)
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Took Profit on the ESU P1600 (40 %) and sold the ESU P1700.

Rolled the LCQ P106 into the LCV P100.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old June 22nd, 2016, 10:30 AM   #275 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
Article with lots of Livestock news.
http://www.thecattlesite.com/news/49840/cme-more-cull-cows-expected-to-come-to-market/

This is the Daily Livestock webpage. It has lots of links to reports and to their Daily Livestock Report.
Home

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Old June 22nd, 2016, 11:55 AM   #276 (permalink)
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The next 3 weeks, weeks 25 to 27, have averaged the largest weekly oil inventory decreases for the year.

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https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870#!/

It's usually bullish to CL but wasn't the last 2 years.

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Old June 28th, 2016, 12:21 PM   #277 (permalink)
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I did not show all the recent short option trades due to the turbulent times.

Bought back the ZNU C135.5 with a profit of 40 % according to Carleys Suggestion before the vote on Brexit, and sold the ZNU C136.5 after the vote, again following Carleys Suggestion.

Bought back the small position of ESU P1700 at a loss of 100 % after the vote on Brexit.

Bought back the KCU C200 after the vote on Brexit at a profit of 67 %.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old June 28th, 2016, 02:17 PM   #278 (permalink)
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Currently only hold two positions:

LCV P100
ZNU C136.5

Not many interesting options to sell in my opinion. I do not like the grains & beans, as we are in a weather market. Risk / reward are not in a good relation for option sellers - you can win little, but lose a lot ...

ES, ZN, CL, GC have large volatilities, which is good for option sellers. But it is hard to predict the next move, thus I only hold one position out of this Group (ZNU calls). I might sell ES puts, if there is a clear move upwards (eg. a strong close above the 200 dma).

I did not follow Carley selling NG calls. La Nina is getting stronger, and this could mean hotter summer and colder winter temperatures. And, thus, more gas consumption in summer (air condition) and winter (heating).

I might sell coffee calls once more in case there is a strong move upwards. But not at current level.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old June 28th, 2016, 02:42 PM   #279 (permalink)
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I've debated the NG calls too. Inventory is the highest in history for this time of year.

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But the last time it was almost this high in 2012, futures went up in July. But last year futures were about the same as this year and inventory wasn't nearly as high as this year and futures didn't go up in July. But production was higher last year.

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But NG futures are getting way over priced today on July expiration day.

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Old June 28th, 2016, 03:04 PM   #280 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post

But NG futures are getting way over priced today on July expiration day.

Yes, the chart for July 2012 was one of the arguments not to sell NG calls at current price levels.

What is your definition of "way over priced" ?

Thank you !

Best regards, Myrrdin

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