Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Bought back the LHN P78 with a profit of approx. 80 %. Most of the potential profit is made, and the price of the futures does not follow my understanding of the fundamentals. Time to get out.
Corn reaches the critical pollination period in July. If weather cooperates prices will come down. In case it gets hot and dry prices will move up sharply. Volatility is not only high because of WASDE, but also because of the near pollination period. It might stay high until weather forecasts are known for July.
For wheat the harvest is beginning. The crop is almost made in the US, and not far from being made in Europe.
The problem for wheat: Corn and (cheap) wheat both are used for feeding. If corn moves up wheat moves up, too. But not that fast.
The good thing for wheat: Wheat is grown around the world. In case of weather problems in the US other countries might help. The US percentage for the world-wide crop of corn is much higher than the US percentage for wheat.
Bought back the coffee calls at a loss of 200 %. Coffee prices moved up strongly after the losses of the USD last Friday after the very weak report.
There was a number of good fundamental arguments (favourable rain in Vietnam, huge crop in Brazil, seasonals) for being short coffee, but it is important to exit a trade when it moves to the wrong direction. Even more if it moves to the wrong direction in spite of favourable fundamentals.
It might be interesting to short coffee again But I will not enter this trade before a sign of a high.
Reason for the strong move of coffee prices seems to be talk about frost in Parana next Monday / Tuesday. Major damage seems unlikely as Parana typically produces only 5 % of Brazil coffee. Unless the cold reaches San Paulo or Minas Gerais, the impact should be minimal.
As long as temperature forecasts for the Major producing parts of Brazil stay above freezing temperatures, it might be interesting to sell OTM calls tomorrow. But this is a high risk trade. Keep the lot size small.
Hog prices are overdone in my opinion. They need very strong news every day to move up further.
Weights are moving up, third quarter pork production is expected to exceed second quarter production by a near record 205 million pounds as compared to a normal summer increase of 50 to 125 million (last year: 33 million).
Main price driver is export to China, which might be limited in case the USD moves up again.
I appreciate your comment, as I am not always sure someone is interested in this topic.
There is a very limited number of questions, few comments about trades by other traders, a small number of readers clicking the "thank you" button. On the other hand obviously a large number of members read the thread.
Every question or comment is highly appreciated, as it shows me there is interest in option selling. This motivates me to go into more details in my contributions.
