After a while, I entered again a "classical" short option trade, and sold the KCH C140/P95 strangle.

Volatility has grown recently, and allows for selling this rather wide spread at an acceptable price.

There is a lot of coffee around, and, thus, I do not see a coffee price of above 130 in the near future. COT data and weather isues in Vietnam should prevent the March contract to move below 1.

I intend to buy the strangle back step by step from 60 % to 25 % of potential profit, and placed such order.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Coffee had quite a rally in the past few weeks, mostly due to growing season but the fundamentals are also a lot more bullish than last year, has your view about prices changed?

Coffee had quite a rally in the past few weeks, mostly due to growing season but the fundamentals are also a lot more bullish than last year, has your view about prices changed?

Hi all and myrrdhin in particular.
Is it me, but I feel the price you get for selling options is lower and lower for higher and higher risks (I was unable to get a good price for platinum and for cocoa, maybe it is now time to have a close look at it for a good price on a naked put@2300). Maybe it has to do with commodities in general going up.
So far I gave up a little bit on options and I am more on Futures/CFD on commodities (soybeans, silver, sugar, cotton).
Coffee: I am not comfortable with the current trend and I was too early and finally missed the train...

Are you still more on spreads myrrdhin? Can you summarize what you are watching next or on what you are on currently?

Season's Greetings
Sagal

Hello,
Does anyone know where I can get the US historical daily/monthly temperature? Something like a US map that shows temperature either by average number of the month or by color (from red to blue). I wasnt able to find monthly data for previous years.

My main goal is to compare the winter weather of the last 7-10 years, as a part of NG fundamentals for trading, and if anyone has a better way to do it rather than using maps, please let me know. Thank you all in advance.

Here is monthly temperature data in both map and numerical form from NOAA.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/
(Sometimes the website is slow to load or won't load. Just try again another time.)

Here are NWS US maps of temperature by color that can show daily or a range of days. Also temperature anomaly.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

My Tableau charts have NWS Degree Day (DD) data for US. Both population weighted cooling degree day data (pwCDD) and gas weighted heating degree day data (gwHDD). Both daily and monthly. Also difference to the long term average.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

Thanks so much Ron thats very helpful!

What is your opinion about NG? Im not sure what I am missing, but I feel like NG prices are a bit low for the current fundamentals. I see that the weekly storage is very close to the 5 year average levels, production is higher (has been increasing for years) but so is the consumption (thus the level of storage not being out of ordinary), export and import numbers are not unusual and are a very small part compared to domestic consumption. The weather is definitely warmer than average, but looking at 2015-2016, the price was around the same level as now (maybe even a bit higher), weather was also very warm but the storage was way higher. In addition the average weekly outflow for the last 2 month of this year is greater than the same number of 2015-2016.

So comparing this year and 2015-2016, I think the price for NG right now is a bit low. Can someone tell me what am I missing?

In addition, why NG prices almost do not react to cold weather blasts? I was in New York area during Thanks Giving, there was a snow storm that I barely escaped and NG prices barely moved up. I was under impression that NG prices are extra sensetive to that kind of information during this time of the year, but I guess Im wrong here, I just want to know why.