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Currently I hold the following positions in the short option portfolio (positions in brackets are already liquidated and only included in the list to make a comment):
LHM C84
LHM P68
Holding this strangle for a long time. Worked perfecty until now. Intend to buy back at 10 % for each leg separately.
LHQ P70
Sold some of these puts today after the open, and intend to sell calls above the market at significantly higher price to achieve a strangle, if given the opportunity.
LCJ P104
Longterm trade, directed long trade without the intention to achieve a strangle.
CZ P4
CZ P4.1
Expiring in June. Intend to buy back at 10 %.
WZ C7
Very longterm. Will probably buy back at 50 % (or lower).
Currently the percentage of longterm outright futures or futures spread trades is larger as I find more possibilities here than in option selling.
Liquidated the LHM strangle at a profit of approx. 80 %. Relatively high risk during the last weeks before expiry, and margin needed for another trade.
I sold July & Aug NG calls naked. Between 3.20-3.40. Then I did an Aug call spread. 3.20-3.40. All winners.
Last trade I did (May 4th) was a NG Iron Condor. Selling put and call spreads. Sep 3.20-3.40 call spread and 2.35-2.20 put spread for net of 0.018. Since margin was so low at $98 per Iron Condor, I am using 10xIM. If I exit at 30 days held and 50% drop in net premium they could make 4.1% ROI.
On April 25, he recommend a trade on Dec Corn CALL 4.7 with a premium of 600+ per contract. Now December corn is about 4.24 with a lot of bullish in play.
If you have read carefully through this thread you will have seen that I don't like selling corn calls during a weather market. And we are in the middle of a weather market regarding the safrina crop in Brazil. In July we will be in a weather market in the northern Hemisphere. Some time in July when it is clear how the crop is doing there might be a good possibility for selling corn calls.
The high might be in for the corn price for this year. But it could also move beyond $5 . Predicting the weather is a difficult science.
On Mar 2nd this year, he made the recommendation. Suppose the entry is made 1 week later when cotton price hit the upper bollinger band on Mar 7 or Mar 9, with a very strong uptrend move of cotton in these weeks, the December cotton 0.92 Call has a good chance to tripple its entry premium. At the time I am writing this, december cotton is traded around 86.70.
What's your opinion on this trade and why it didn't folder out as the author deciphered its fundamentals?
Seasonals and COT data were in favour of this trade, but sometimes you are simply wrong although you did a good job. In this case, obviously the weather did not cooperate.
Carley suggested a similar trade a couple of days ago. followed her, selling some CTZ C100 and buying some CTN C100 as protection.
Please dont take the trade recommendations like gospel. They have even stated in a monthly video that they are not responsible for what they recommend. You have to do your own research (fundamentals, seasonality, Hightower report, etc.). If then you feel the trade is good, take it but you HAVE to have an exit point.
