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USDA report of today was bearish wheat, as US and global wheat stocks were adjusted higher. The only argument for rising prices is that the report was bullish for corn.
USDA report for me confirms staying in the trade short WZ C650.
Best regards, Myrrdin
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The reason is mainly Supply & Demand. And perhaps fear that the Chinese will reduce their imports. But these imports are significantly smaller than their hog imports.
We might move further downwards on Monday, as the Cattle on Feed Report, published Friday after the close, was bearish the June and August contracts.
In the long run, LCM should move back upwards.
I just sold the LCQ P96. I also hold the LCV-LCM for some time, which is highly profitable and serves as a hedge for the short puts.
Best regards, Myrrdin
Last edited by myrrdin; March 24th, 2018 at 04:12 AM.
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An additional remark: I do not think it is a good idea to hold short option positions, when an important report is published, if you are not an expert in this field. I liquidated my short LCJ C124 some days before the CoF Report to reduce risk.
Best regards, Myrrdin
The following 2 users say Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
Thank you for your input. Anyway, what time frame is it roughly for LCM to move back upwards in long run, in weeks or months? LCM expires in June with OLCM8 options expiring on the 1st day of that month. There is no more trading day in March. It is almost exactly 2 months for OLCM8 to expire.
Yesterday (Thursday), LCM had a drop of $3 which pushes LCM8 to 102.575 just before the end of trading session. Will it move further down to be below 100 in April? Just curious. My OLCM8 P100 position hasn't hit the risk control parameter yet. But I have already start to wonder should I set up a stop order standing there to wait it to happen.
Hard to say when LCM will move upwards again. Cash price is coming down since middle of March, and it has to come down far enough to stimulate consumption.
This is why I hold the LCQ puts. These options move slower as the LCM puts. Furthermore, in my opinion the August contract is undervalued to a higher degree than the June contract. In addition I hold the LCV - LCM future spread as a hedge for the options.
I would consider to roll the LCM puts to the August contract.
I never use a stop order for options. The fill most often is terrible. I usually exit end of day. Watch the volume of futures in the meat markets: Most volume is traded during a few minutes before the close.
Best regards, Myrrdin
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wonder what your thoughts on selling calls in SOYBEANS ? Looks like the report that came out on thursday caused a large spike on soybeans, however looks like the US market will be posting the largest ever production/harvest.
