NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Diversified Option Selling Portfolio


Discussion in Options

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one myrrdin with 812 posts (1,274 thanks)
    2. looks_two ron99 with 207 posts (489 thanks)
    3. looks_3 manuel999 with 109 posts (108 thanks)
    4. looks_4 TraderGriz with 66 posts (26 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 2.4 thanks per post
    2. looks_two ron99 with 2.4 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 myrrdin with 1.6 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 manuel999 with 1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 283,731 views
    2. thumb_up 2,296 thanks given
    3. group 139 followers
    1. forum 1,598 posts
    2. attach_file 93 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Diversified Option Selling Portfolio

  #1261 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651


rajab View Post
Myrrdin, Ron99, or other NG traders.

If you were to sell NG puts the first weak of March what would be the most important factors you look at and how far OTM considering a decent ROI?

THANKS
Babak

I placed an order to sell the NGN P2.5. In my opinion the lows are in for a while. I intend to enter somewhere around the February low.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Cheap historycal L1 data for stocks
Stocks and ETFs
What broker to use for trading palladium futures
Commodities
MC PL editor upgrade
MultiCharts
How to apply profiles
Traders Hideout
About a successful futures trader who didn´t know anyth …
Psychology and Money Management
 
  #1262 (permalink)
rajab
westhills california US
 
Posts: 94 since May 2015
Thanks Given: 131
Thanks Received: 20


ron99 View Post
I would be looking at selling NG June 2.25 puts.

Of the last 7 years only the June 2012 contract dropped from about where futures are now to 2.000. But fundamentals are different now and I don't see that large a drop.



https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

What kind of ROI are you expecting?
And what kind of margin multiplier are you keeping in your account?

Thanks

Reply With Quote
  #1263 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 980
Thanks Received: 5,785



rajab View Post
What kind of ROI are you expecting?
And what kind of margin multiplier are you keeping in your account?

Thanks

3.4% ROI if exiting at 30 days held and 50% drop in premium with 5xIM.

6xIM is 2.8% ROI

8xIM is 2.1% ROI

10xIM is 1.7% ROI

Reply With Quote
  #1264 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651

Sold the CTZ C90 for the following reasons:
  • COT data bearish,
  • seasonals bearish from April onwards,
  • higher acreage expected.

I intend to take profit at 50 %

The same trade was suggested by James Cordier.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1265 (permalink)
 manuel999 
Germany
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TWS
Trading: Options on futures
Posts: 155 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 341
Thanks Received: 142


myrrdin View Post
Sold the CTZ C90 for the following reasons:
  • COT data bearish,
  • seasonals bearish from April onwards,
  • higher acreage expected.

I intend to take profit at 50 %

The same trade was suggested by James Cordier.

Best regards, Myrrdin

According to the Moore Seasonal Patterns report the High for cotton is between Mar-May.
The report only goes to 2008 though.
Did the seasonal pattern in CT change in the last 10 years?

Reply With Quote
  #1266 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 980
Thanks Received: 5,785


manuel999 View Post
According to the Moore Seasonal Patterns report the High for cotton is between Mar-May.
The report only goes to 2008 though.
Did the seasonal pattern in CT change in the last 10 years?

Here are CTz contracts since 2006 without the atypical years of 2010 + 2011.



https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1267 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651


ron99 View Post
Here are CTz contracts since 2006 without the atypical years of 2010 + 2011.



https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

Thank you, Ron, for these excellent charts.

This one shows nicely that the years with a major move upwards in March and April are the years when the price for CTZ was significanlty below $70. Today this price is above $78.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1268 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651


manuel999 View Post
According to the Moore Seasonal Patterns report the High for cotton is between Mar-May.
The report only goes to 2008 though.
Did the seasonal pattern in CT change in the last 10 years?

Moores Seasonal patterns go back 30 years. In his on-line service he shows 5-, 15-, and 30-years graphs.

For cotton, these lines look rather similar for this time of the year.

Changes in the seasonals for growing commodities usually occor when there are new growing areas (eg. when S and C were grown in South Americas some year ago) or growing areas are moved (eg. Coffee and Orange Juice in the nineties after some severe frost damage in Brazil or Florida, respectively).

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1269 (permalink)
ants222222
new zealand
 
Posts: 6 since Aug 2017
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 2

This is directed to myrridin, I think you mentioned you bought the WZ18 600 call ? Cordier recommends selling this option, how do you think things are progressing?

Reply With Quote
  #1270 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651



ants222222 View Post
This is directed to myrridin, I think you mentioned you bought the WZ18 600 call ? Cordier recommends selling this option, how do you think things are progressing?

I sold the WZ C600 some time ago, but bought it back with a small loss.

Later I sold the WZ C650, and with this option I feel comfortable.

I rarely buy options.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote




Last Updated on May 26, 2022


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts