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When pointed out the definite risk of ruin and showed what would have happen during financial crisis Sept 2008 (this was before Aug 2015) Ron banned me. Ron would have went busto in Aug 2015 also.
Volatility is good for the market and trading.
Preservation of capital is the most important concept for those who want to stay in the trading game for the long haul. - Van Tharp
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I like to use a simple RSI for buy and sell indicators on Gold. Seems like a breach of 30 or 70 is followed by a reversal historically speaking. GC recently breached the 70 level so I am adding some short delta to my portfolio.
I typically like to sell strangles with neutral delta unless I have a directional bias. In the case of RSI breaching 30 or 70 on GC, it just helps me determine if I want to be directional. RSI isn't perfect in GC, but it does a decent job forecasting a reversal. In the case where RSI breaches 70, I'll sell a GC call at a delta of 10 or maybe 20 depending on how much risk I want to take and if I have existing GC positions on. This gives me room to the upside if I happen to be early in my entry. And, I typically only trade once per monthly expiry, so a breach of RSI doesn't dictate entry of a new trade every time. I then look to leg into a put if GC does in fact reverse. Otherwise, I will usually look to trade delta neutral as I stated earlier. My entry is usually 45/60 to 90 DTE on all trades.
In grains I like to watch slow and fast stochastics for similar types of entry points on directional trades, or I will simply take the neutral delta approach. I am a grain producer so there are a number of other variables that I am aware of that provide input into my directional trades too.
I held the LEM P100 some weeks ago, but bought it back profitably to reduce my exposure. I still hold the LCJ P110.
Cattle price in my opinion should move upwards before coming down later this year, as the drop in beef production from Q4 to Q1 is expected to be larger than average this year.
I think I have traded live cattle a couple of times in the last several years. It's not a market I follow, and ToS doesn't offer options on LE. I use straight futures for scalping, but generally like to sell premium against any long or short to lower my directional deltas of the future, and give me some padding if I happen to be wrong on direction.
Anyone have any thoughts on crude oil or the dollar? both seem to be getting to extremes. I already have strangles on in CL for Mar and Apr, and strangles on 6E for Mar and Apr, since ToS doesn't have options for DX.
Looking to possibly add some extra short deltas on CL and 6E both.
CL does not follow the seasonals for some months. Currently I do not have an idea about the development of its price. Thus, I do not hold a position in CL, and do not intend to add one in the near future.
The only position I hold in the currencies is a hedge for my US stocks, as my base currency is Euro. As described some time ago, I am not successful in selling options on currency futures.
