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As I trade US contracts I pay attention to US fundamentals and to fundamentals of countries of world-wide importance. USDA covers the other countries as well, as far as grains and beans are concerned.
The Hightower Report covers all countries as well, the same is true for information I receive from my broker RJO.
The ICE Reports about fundamentals of softs (see soft thread at Futures.io) cover all relevant countries.
Regarding energies, John Kemp sends out interesting information regarding all countries free of charge.
The only commodity for which I have limited information regarding other countries than the US is meats.
Additionally there are many things I find in the world-wide net - daily or weekly reports on commodities as well as detailed pieces of Information on a related subject.
For me it is important to receive information from different sources, which are independent from each other. If they fit together, I trade them. If they are in contradiction, I avoid trading the commodity.
Before my retirement a major reason was that the main trading hours in the US are when I came home from work, and end when I go to bed.
Furthermore, commodities have a much higher trading volume, and it is easier to get relevant Information on fundamentals.
In my stocks account I hold many European positions (target: 40 % Europe, 40 % US, 20 % rest of the world), but regarding commoditiy trading I prefer the US.
Well, i dont realy like the US Trading hours - i am more a "Morning" Person. But i do like the US liquidity - it is gigantic. I do like SP 500 E-Mini, very big market, you can Implement many diferent strategies there, because of the huge Liquidity. For me it is a primary Reason trading in the US.
He argues CL prices will increase in the near future.
Demand will increase, while US shale output will decrease.
I have currently CL Calls open, but there is not much DTE left. When I close them, I will not open new Calls, but will consider start selling Puts in November.
I liquidated my CL calls some time ago when the probability of La Nina was risen to 61 and later 67 %. In case of La Nina, the seasonal chart for CL, which generally is bearish at this time of the year, turns bullish. I do not intend to sell CL (and NG) options until there is a clear answer to the question if there is La Nina this year or not.
The current problem is: Probability of La Nina is estimatied at 67 %. If there is a new estimate in a couple of weeks saying there will be no La Nina this year, prices for CL and NG might drop significantly, as the current estimate of the probability is priced in to some degree. Additionally seasonality for non-La Nina years is still bearish.
