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I intend to enter the following short option trades in the near future:
Sell CTZ C80
I am interested in this trade for quite a while, but do not intend to enter below 70 for the CTZ contract. Fundamentals look quite good for the world-wide cotton crop. The weak USD and flooding in India currently move prices up, and this could be a good chance to sell calls in August.
Sell CLZ C60-70 or similar
Seasonally crude oil price should move downwards from August onwards. I intend to re-enter this trade some time during this month.
Sell NGX C4
As already stated here, I am interested in being short NG. But I am not interested in choosing lower strike prices. If NG does not move up again, I will miss this trade.
Sell KCZ C200 or similar
In September there is a seasonal high due to the market pricing in weather problems during the blooming period. This is often a good chance to sell calls high above the market. In the short run, I expect prices to move upwards, and I am long outright futures. Seasonals, COT data, and weak USD should support prices.
Sell CZ calls
In case corn price (CZ) moves above 4.1 or 4.2 in August, I intend to sell CZ calls.
Here is chart of 2017 NG vs 5 year avg. The gap is narrowing.
The cooler weather in US now and near future will probably keep lid on prices or even cause them to drop. But eventually the lower inventory total will raise prices as we get closer to US winter.
So NG calls might be OK short term but I have no idea what or when will prices go flying higher.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
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End of Season Storage swap traded 3773 today and came back offered there. Based upon your chart 5 year average is 3873 so that would be exactly 100 BCF ABOVE 5 year average. We're currently 2879 vs 5 year average 2990, or 111 BCF below, so that implies market thinks we will lose 211 BCF versus 5 year average. (Thanks @ron99 for correcting me on original post).
While production remains high, there is also more gas generation than ever before. In reality it all comes down to weather. Cold winter and you won't want to be short calls, although theres a big difference between being short X and F (or H) calls. Warm winter and curve goes into contango and everybody will start thinking about refill and the following winter, but that won't be until well after X has expired.
I told myself I was not going to trade during working season. Guess I lied to myself, everything is done cept I have been selling RBOB 125puts which worked well for me. Now I decided to sell some calls RBV 165 and 170 calls is it a big mistake? They are naked.
Generally I prefer to sell 90 to 120 DTE. The October options will expire rather early.
As posted here short time ago, I prefer to sell covered calls in crude oil. This is of course also valid for RBOB. A single event (eg. terroristic attack, political decision) can move the price of Crude Oil significantly.
I sold the CLZ C60-C70 on Friday before the close.
