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I intend to sell the NGX C4 on a small move upwards. Seasonals are in favour of this trade. Also currently high temperatures should favour a move upwards which does not occur. I consider bullish conditions without a bullish chart a bearish sign.
As I am retired it is difficult to define vacations. But I travel a lot ...
If I do not have access to my account or do not want to take care of the account I liquidate some of my positions, place intraday stops where appropriate, and ask my broker (Carley) to take care of the stops of the remaining short options and future positions (end of day).
If I have access to my account I take care of these issues myself once a day around the close. Usually I do not place many new trades during vacations.
We're going to see several weeks of below 5 yr avg injections. pwCDD have been and are forecast to be above avg.
The Rover pipeline is way behind schedule. Was supposed to be partially running July 1. That 3.25 Bcf/day pipeline will allow more NG production to make it to market. They are looking at Nov 2017 as possible full capacity start. Late Aug for partial start.
But inventory now is above the 5 yr avg. That keeps lid on prices. So I think NG will still be range bound.
I am leaning towards the NG market being more bullish than bearish.
I'm looking at NGx7p240c400. I hope 4 calls calls aren't too close. Premiums are lower now than in May. Legging into calls now and puts later.
Nov 4 calls settled at 0.027 today but are only bid at 0.024 now 5 times. I'm going to try again tomorrow.
Today July 20 I sold NGx7p240 for 0.013. I should have sold the 400 call right after weekly inventory when futures popped. I will try another time when future move higher.
Edit: filled on 4 calls at 0.025 37 minutes after I made this post.
