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Can Forex options be used as an FX 'lead' indicator?
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Can Forex options be used as an FX 'lead' indicator?

  #1 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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Can Forex options be used as an FX 'lead' indicator?

Can Forex options be used as any sort of 'lead' indicator for FX?

There seems to be some element of forward thinking in option pricing.

If this is at all accurate, can you point me in a direction to learn more?

Thanks!

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
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I would not read to much into the open interest of otions. Options can be used for a variety of reasons and do not necessarily express speculative directional bets. In addition, many Fx options are traded OTC / non exchange based which could give you an incomplete or incorrect picture.

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  #4 (permalink)
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Yes, if you know what you are doing. Are the puts or calls more expensive? In a sideways market they should be relatively balanced, but if there is a strong trend or pressure in one direction, you'll find the option pricing may express this before price on the underlying does. The hard part is in uncovering if the options volume is due to that position being hedged or building a directional position.

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To add to MacroNinja's point:

25-delta risk reversals show the difference in volatility, and therefore price, between puts and calls on the most liquid out-of-the-money (OTM) options. Positive values indicate calls being more expensive than puts (upside protection on the underlying forex spot is relatively more expensive), while negative values indicate puts are more expensive than calls (downside protection is relatively more expensive). Significant changes can indicate a change in market expectations for the future direction in the underlying forex spot rate.

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I agree with Cogito ergo sum.
I would rather look at COT (commitment of traders) for that kind of information.
You should have a look at the webinar here from Fxcm , where they talk about getting a edge in the forex spot market.

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  #7 (permalink)
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Cogito ergo sum View Post
I would not read to much into the open interest of otions. Options can be used for a variety of reasons and do not necessarily express speculative directional bets. In addition, many Fx options are traded OTC / non exchange based which could give you an incomplete or incorrect picture.

Could you please show where have you read this? thank you very much

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