Long Island, NY
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker: TD Ameritrade
Trading: Equities, index options and futures/futures options
Posts: 190 since Apr 2010
Thanks Given: 66
Thanks Received: 198
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The smartest thing you can do is back test the two different option months and go with the one that produces the best results. Of course that assumes you have or can obtain the data. Without an empirical basis, you need to answer some questions. What are the characteristics of the seasonal factor? Does the move tend to happen early, late or steadily during October? How big is the move usually? Does it often continue into November? Do the October and November futures contracts tend to trade in sympathy or differently? I'm sure you can think of others. Keep in mind the shorter dated options will have more Gamma and Theta and give more bang for the buck when the market moves but will decay faster when it doesn't. Spreads add a whole new level of complexity that doesn't seem necessary to me when trading a simple seasonal trend but I'll admit I've never traded that way so I could also be completely wrong!
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