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Going into the end of the year, I think it will be interesting to see what happens to the VIX. I am curious as to what effect the supposed lack of major retail investments will have on the VIX, especially if we do go over the fiscal cliff/get downgraded etc... I feel like if this situation would have been pre 2008 there would be much more panicked selling at the moment. This could all change on a dime, but it seems like that since the average investor is largely uninvested in equities, that the market is remaining much calmer. It seems like the rest of the market should maybe be behaving like the widely owned aapl. Anyone have any thoughts on the matter?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I am not sure you really want to go long VIX at this time of the year. Perhaps just wait for when we come back from holiday in Jan'13?
As you say, end of December is a holiday period, professionals go on vacation and it would very very difficult for the market to sell unless something really major happens... but knowing how things run behind the stages, I am more inclined to think that they will find a temporary solution to the fiscal cliff - just enough to maintain the markets buoyant until the new year.
Be careful with that trade, and good luck
Cheers
Fadi
Successful people will do what unsuccessful people won't or can't do!
I go into this subject in great depth in my journal "Lady Vol's Primer" here.
We were long VIX 1x2s and also UVXY calls going into Feb. 5. In an event like that you can expect to see your calls return up to 1500% ROC, or more.
>Full Disc: I am long VIX Jan 20 calls
Note that this is a very old post from 2012.
Generally speaking you cannot afford to warehouse Vol like that. Everybody wants to do it but it's too expensive. It's kind of like the Holy Grail.
The only people that do hold long vol products are institutions that have to do so due to Dodd Frank. They try to find a way to finance it if they can.
The cheapest way to get some long exposure when VIX is low like right now is via long VIX call spreads. Go about 45 to 60 days out, with one leg close to the money and the other leg much further out -- 10 strikes. Find a way to finance. Probably the sweet spot on closing is at 14 to 20 days out.
VIX call spreads much more economical than straight calls.
"Persistence is very important. You should not give up unless you are forced to give up." -- Elon Musk
