Going into the end of the year, I think it will be interesting to see what happens to the VIX. I am curious as to what effect the supposed lack of major retail investments will have on the VIX, especially if we do go over the fiscal cliff/get downgraded etc... I feel like if this situation would have been pre 2008 there would be much more panicked selling at the moment. This could all change on a dime, but it seems like that since the average investor is largely uninvested in equities, that the market is remaining much calmer. It seems like the rest of the market should maybe be behaving like the widely owned aapl. Anyone have any thoughts on the matter?
I am not sure you really want to go long VIX at this time of the year. Perhaps just wait for when we come back from holiday in Jan'13?
As you say, end of December is a holiday period, professionals go on vacation and it would very very difficult for the market to sell unless something really major happens... but knowing how things run behind the stages, I am more inclined to think that they will find a temporary solution to the fiscal cliff - just enough to maintain the markets buoyant until the new year.
Be careful with that trade, and good luck
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