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I think his risk management was pretty poor in that aspect. But i do give him credit for his fundamentals.
I have been following his newsletters for since 2017. His fundamentals in most commodities is right more often than not. In the case of NatGas, prices did come down to the lowest in recent memory.
Been missing his "Premium Sniper" section of his newsletter if I was to be honest.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
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This is a several years old article on a SPY-TLT (S&P500-US Treasuries) rotation strategy using sharpe ratios. I mention it here because at the bottom "Here are some Investment strategies based on the calculated UIS allocation:" the 4th strategy is a strategy that sells both SPY and TLT puts which I thought some here might find interesting.
... his fundamentals were as excellent as his risk and money management was poor, at least in November. Fundamentally he was right in NG as well and just could not stand the pop up in NG prices which lastet less than 6 weeks.
It´s a pity not only for their clients and their company but for any options trader who - like me - enjoyed and used his fundamentals as an excellent basis for own trading ideas.
I guess his deal was making at least a winning year for his clients. From the broker statements I´ve seen there was no gain in 2018 so far and he might wanted to get it done within the last weeks of 2018 selling high volaitility. Done too much, lost everything, shit happens ...
Among my rules there is a strict one: Never trade weather markets.
I received my PhD in Fluid Dynamics long time ago, and I have learnt that it is currently not possible to forecast weather with a probability sufficient to sell options with a reasonable risk.
Volatilities are high in weather markets, but there is a good reason for it.
I avoid selling options for the Z, F, G, and H contracts for Natural Gas.
If you look at "all" on the chart it goes back to Jan '94 and you can see the historical volatility spikes. Check out the last spike at the end of 2018, and where Cordier was selling at right before it....
