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After experiencing several large drops in my trading career, a large drop now doesn't faze me as much anymore. You can't go back and change what happened so you learn to move on and recover.
rsm005, you are doing the correct thing by using more excess/trading less positions if that makes it easier for you to sleep at night.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
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SPX is the symbol of the actual S&P500 Index!
Anyway, Friday we were down, for the 9th day in a row... this has only happened 24 times in history with most of those being 50+ years ago, with 3 in the 1930's, 1 in the 1950's, 11 in the 1960's, 7 in the the 1970's and the most recent being 11 December 1980. So it hasn't happened in almost 36 years! The average 9 day decline of the 23 previous occurrences was 7% with the only decline's smaller than the current 3.07% being 2.74% on 23-Feb-66 and 3.06% on 22-Jul-63. (So it's a long, but not significantly big streak). I'm not sure I would read anything into what happened in similair situations 50+ years ago but the next day the market is up only 56% of the time, but is up 70% of the time on Day 2. Interestingly though for Days 4 thru 10 the market was up less than 35% of the time. Of course this year, I think it will all come down to the result on Tuesday (US Presidential election for the non-Americans).
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206
I couldn't understand why this chart didn't match my analysis and I finally found it. The chart is slightly wrong.
For example the market did decline 12 consecutive days from 92.42 on 21-Apr-66 to 86.32 on 9-May-66 which is a 6.6% decline. But its a 6.6% 12 day decline NOT a 6.6% 8 day decline as labeled.
Also if you want analysis "ALL" the 8 day declines, you need to realize that technically speaking there were five 8 day declines in that 12 day period
-2.57 or -2.8% from 92.42 on 21-Apr to 89.85 on 3-May
-2.88 or -3.1% from 92.27 on 22-Apr to 89.39 on 4-May
-4.15 or -4.5% from 92.08 on 25-Apr to 87.93 on 5-May
-4.15 or -4.5% from 91.99 on 26-Apr to 87.84 on 6-May
-5.44 or -5.9% from 91.76 on 27-Apr to 86.32 on 9-May
Hence Charlie Bilello's twitter claim of only 26 occurrences of 8 consecutive down days is also incorrect. There might have been 26 occurrences of 8 consecutive down days, when the market goes up the next day but there were actually 54 occurrences of 8 consecutive down days.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206
Reviewing my statement, I guess he actually said "has declined 8+ days in a row 26 times". It is true that we have only had 26 losing streaks of 8 or more days, but that's technically not the same thing.
