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Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
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I've had a seasonalgo.com sub for about 4 months now after somebody on these forums mentioned it.
I've been trading entirely spread positions (which I know is not what you asked) and have had limited success with it.
My win/loss % is decent but unfortunately my average win/average loss is skewed the wrong way, primarily due to one badly managed trade.
It obviously has a wealth of information but I'm struggling to formalize a plan to use it.
One word of warning is that (at least for spreads) it uses EOD data, and as such all the drawdown and Stop Loss information is severely underestimated.
I look at seasonal charts to see if there if a strong historical average movement one way or the other for a commodity I am thinking about selling options. I then compare that to current fundamentals to see if the two are in alignment. If so I then sell the opposite side of the expected trend.
In the FWIW Dept, while I believe MRCI built their business on seasonal analysis, spread analysis, and to some extent correlation analysis, they also have some useful option data.
(see Volatility Charts and Daily Volatility Report)
The Weekly and Monthly Volatility Charts are valuable to know where the current market is compared to history: https://www.mrci.com/sample/week.pdf
I bought their service for several years just for the daily IV data and the long term volatility charts. I'm not a current subscriber, but when you consider all you get, their service is a pretty good value. If I ran the show, I'd carve out a separate options subscription, upgrade the design and delivery a bit, and charge about the same price ala carte for options as I did for the whole package.
Trouble is, when the credit is so small you have to sell a lot of contracts and then the margin adds up. (Even if the commission is small, need to consider the margin.) So you think you're getting a great percentage gain but imo not really because it ties up too much money in margin. ie I think it's important to compare gain to required margin, not just gain to risk. Hope this makes sense.
