Selling Options on Futures?

December 31st, 2013, 02:42 PM

Now would be an interesting moment to leg in to those naked NGh calls and make it a ratio spread...

December 31st, 2013, 03:24 PM

NG margins going up 9.5% on Monday.

December 31st, 2013, 04:01 PM

seemasp

In my observation, ratio spread and naked short options are strategies for different type of markets. Naked short is usually employed when selling against trend (existing or anticipated due to seasonal behavior) or selling outside trading range type of behavior. While ratio spread is more appropriate for either very high volatility (when it can be sold for credit and still give lot of safety cushion) or for a slow trend situation when you expect some more movement but not too much (and it would be done for debit in this case).

I personally reserve ratio spread for very high volatility situation and I posted an actual trade last week showing example of that for Natural Gas.

No disagreement here, especially NatGas of late. The aforementioned comment was sort of a run on my prior 3 posts. I should have cleared that up.

January 1st, 2014, 12:06 PM

I live in northern Ohio. Monday night we are forecast to be -5 to -9 degrees. Depends on the forecaster. The high Tuesday is forecast to be +2 to +10.

I would be careful selling NG calls with this happening. There will be some huge withdrawals from NG storage soon.

January 1st, 2014, 12:08 PM

Some findings on the recent NG calls. I had rolled to a higher strike and added more positions to cover the losses of the lower strike.

Mar NG futures were 4.473 on 12/19. On 12/23 they were 4.500. Up .027.
The Mar 5.00 call on 12/19 was .194. The 6.00 was .085.
On 12/23 the 5.00 was .218. Up .024. The 6.00 was .112. Up .027. More than the 5s. That's crazy that the 6s went up more than the 5s and the same as futures.

The 7s went from .040 to .062. Up .022. Way too much compared to futures for an option this far OTM.

This is why rolling didn't work this time. The 7s only lost $20 per contract less than 5s. So rolling to more positions at 7 than 5s actually lost me more money not less.

January 1st, 2014, 03:20 PM

ron99

Some findings on the recent NG calls. I had rolled to a higher strike and added more positions to cover the losses of the lower strike.

Mar NG futures were 4.473 on 12/19. On 12/23 they were 4.500. Up .027.
The Mar 5.00 call on 12/19 was .194. The 6.00 was .085.
On 12/23 the 5.00 was .218. Up .024. The 6.00 was .112. Up .027. More than the 5s. That's crazy that the 6s went up more than the 5s and the same as futures.

The 7s went from .040 to .062. Up .022. Way too much compared to futures for an option this far OTM.

This is why rolling didn't work this time. The 7s only lost $20 per contract less than 5s. So rolling to more positions at 7 than 5s actually lost me more money not less.

I think that happened because volatility went thru' the roof. Even though the volatility of the far OTM options is higher than the nearer ones, this time it was way too higher. I looked at that and decided to fold instead of rolling (had one too many contracts, anyway), took it in the shorts but still ended up for 2013.

2013 was my first year with futures options (been doing equity/index options for a few years) and was nicely placed till that week of December .... but still ended the year in positive territory.

Thank you to the forum and especially to Ron, Kevin and the newer posters too! Learning new tricks everyday.

January 1st, 2014, 09:18 PM

ron99

NG margins going up 9.5% on Monday.

Where can I find this information? I notice you're always on top of these decrease / increases. I did a quick look around at broker and exchanges and I'm not looking in the right place. A point in the right direction would be appreciated.

Note: I've probably missed this in one of the nearly 300 pages of this thread. Searching margin, margin increase comes up with endless results.

January 1st, 2014, 11:52 PM

nomad4x

Where can I find this information? I notice you're always on top of these decrease / increases. I did a quick look around at broker and exchanges and I'm not looking in the right place. A point in the right direction would be appreciated.

Note: I've probably missed this in one of the nearly 300 pages of this thread. Searching margin, margin increase comes up with endless results.

Post #2 (Quick Summary) has the links.

January 2nd, 2014, 09:28 AM

ron99

Post #2 (Quick Summary) has the links.

I saw that, Both the ICE and CME links are dead. When/if I find the proper link i"ll post it.

It looks like the old link is now this link https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/communications/sub-center.html Oddly enough if you click on the link on page 2 it gives you a error page. in the bulletin on the CME sight it has the old link and redirects to the new link. Odd Stuff...

January 2nd, 2014, 09:40 AM

ron99

The last 5 first trading days of the new year the March ES contract has been up double digits.

09 +25.50
10 +18.00
11 +12.25
12 +19.50
13 +37.00 This was affected by Congress waiting until Jan 1st to pass bill.

Nice rally on Tuesday but not looking so great today so far.
I dabbled with some 1830/50 weekly fences (Jan 3rd), sold half with a decent profit going into close Tuesday.
May add some 1820/40s again here

Selling Options on Futures?

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Selling Options on Futures?