Hello Ron, I've just started selling futures options using short strangle. Do you try to enter the short positions when the volatility high? If so, how do you read this off the charts. Apologies if this has been addressed before.
Fair enough, but I think you're mistaking a tendency to focus on facts and numbers, with arrogance. In real life, I am quite the opposite of brash or arrogant. The reason I have taken a direct approach as I have is to get people to think analytically instead of succumbing to the "dreamer's attitude" like a lot of traders have a tendency to do. I'm not saying there are not people who don't know what they're doing, but a lot of new traders that read these threads are bound to get swept away into believing things can happen without knowing why or what the chances are and without doing the homework they need to do.
My intent has never been to piss people off, rather to encourage debate so as to put reality more into focus. If I get ourselves to question our methods, it's a good thing.
You have to understand that I come from a scientific background. In the science community, things are debated. Facts and figures are put forth where they are argued. Certainly some people are not used to this. Indeed, my style might be unusual, but it doesn't mean there is no benefit.
I believe the reason I deliberately take a direct, blunt tone is as a kind of "cold water" wake-up call. The purpose is really just to spark the kind of self-reflection that leads to "am I really doing the right thing here, do I need to look at it from a different angle." This approach walks a fine line between achieving what it intends, or alienating people, and it seems to do doing more of the latter, unfortunately. For that I apologize.
At this point, I think I'll take a different tack. If anybody wants, you can respond to one of my threads or PM me, and I promise I won't bite your head off.
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The cycle for gold prices, which climbed for 12 straight years, has probably turned as the recovery in the U.S. economy gathers momentum and investment holdings collapse, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which reduced forecasts for the metal.
The bank cut its three-month target to $1,615 an ounce from $1,825 and lowered the six- and 12-month forecasts to $1,600 and $1,550 from $1,805 and $1,800. Goldman reversed an assumption exchange-traded products holdings will expand in 2013, analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie wrote in a Feb. 25 report. Gold's cycle seen turned by Goldman Sachs as ETP holdings drop
Your are fine in my book. I agree that asking hard questions about the subject is important. I think this thread is perfect for new options sellers since there are several contributors that have extensive yet different styles of selling options. Just about everyone here is very conservative and there is a lot of emphasis placed balancing risk vs reward. I welcome your continued input and questions.
I agree that without the long options, it would be impossible to hold a strangle unless you have or want to use up a large amount of funds for margin.
I guess the main question about the position is if a decent profit can be made by the time the longs expire and an exit of the shorts. At least that is how I am considering managing the simulated position that I posted on here yesterday. I will post an update on that after markets close.
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Just to let you know that OX indeed accepts European Clients, after my account was shut down last year due to OX Europe no longer doing business, I applied for a new account last week and my account is now operational. When looking at the fees using Trade Calculator for options on futures, commission pricing is $3.50/contract, margin also seams fair (May 75 Put on CL shows $6,376 on OX while $23,956 at IB). Happy to be able to trade again at OX with decent fees and margin, and thanks MGBRoadster for pointing out that OX still services European customers!
Edit: margin is for May CL 75 Put not 70 (and for 10 contracts), thanks ron99 for noticing.
Last edited by CJ77; February 27th, 2013 at 04:55 PM.
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