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Selling Options on Futures?


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Selling Options on Futures?

  #6861 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
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tinaturner View Post
Hello Ron
I am studying a possibility of output different from the system -2 + 3. Although studies tell us that 6 x IM can be enough to hold a position, this does not assure us that the next time it will be equal. A possible closing of the operation at 6 x IM would suppose about 3000 $ of loss by lot. In a situation like this we would lose the gains obtained with 1 lot in 5 years. Too hard to fit. Therefore I thought that a good way to manage the operation could be doing the opposite operation to cover us if the price is close to the short strikes and we reach a loss of 6 x IM. The opposite operation would be with continuous strikes to the originals. Example: -2PUT2190 + 3PUT1875. Once we reach the loss of 6 x IM we cover with + 2PUT2200 -3PUT1880. From here, if the SPX continues to go down, all are benefits. If SPX turns around the loss is practically frozen (6 x IM) but with the advantage that at an appropriate time we can close the coverage and continue managing the initial operation. I think that this exit strategy (no exit) is much more bearable psychologically.
Any comments will be welcome

EDIT: The cover will be +2PUT2200 -3PUT1870

If it continues to go down there are almost no benefits. The one position is offset by the other. You might as well just exit original position.

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  #6862 (permalink)
tinaturner
BARCELONA/SPAIN
 
Posts: 33 since Sep 2013
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ron99 View Post
If it continues to go down there are almost no benefits. The one position is offset by the other. You might as well just exit original position.

If at 6 IM loss I exit the original position then I have 3000 $ loss. This means 5 years of trading -2+3.
If you cover with +2-3 you have the chance to freeze your loss. After that, at least you would have the ability to block the loss and wait for expiration so that the loss would no longer be $ 3000. It would be just a few hundred dollars (as long as SPX does not attack our short puts of the original position).

I think there is a big difference

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  #6863 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 980
Thanks Received: 5,785



tinaturner View Post
Hello Ron
I am studying a possibility of output different from the system -2 + 3. Although studies tell us that 6 x IM can be enough to hold a position, this does not assure us that the next time it will be equal. A possible closing of the operation at 6 x IM would suppose about 3000 $ of loss by lot. In a situation like this we would lose the gains obtained with 1 lot in 5 years. Too hard to fit. Therefore I thought that a good way to manage the operation could be doing the opposite operation to cover us if the price is close to the short strikes and we reach a loss of 6 x IM. The opposite operation would be with continuous strikes to the originals. Example: -2PUT2190 + 3PUT1875. Once we reach the loss of 6 x IM we cover with + 2PUT2200 -3PUT1880. From here, if the SPX continues to go down, all are benefits. If SPX turns around the loss is practically frozen (6 x IM) but with the advantage that at an appropriate time we can close the coverage and continue managing the initial operation. I think that this exit strategy (no exit) is much more bearable psychologically.
Any comments will be welcome

EDIT: The cover will be +2PUT2200 -3PUT1870

You will not be able to enter new positions once you reach the loss of 6xIM. Your account balance would be zero.

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  #6864 (permalink)
tinaturner
BARCELONA/SPAIN
 
Posts: 33 since Sep 2013
Thanks Given: 2
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ron99 View Post
You will not be able to enter new positions once you reach the loss of 6xIM. Your account balance would be zero.

But you can increase your account balance from another account when this situation is about to happen. Only one or 2 times every 5 years.

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  #6865 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 980
Thanks Received: 5,785


tinaturner View Post
Hello Ron
I am studying a possibility of output different from the system -2 + 3. Although studies tell us that 6 x IM can be enough to hold a position, this does not assure us that the next time it will be equal. A possible closing of the operation at 6 x IM would suppose about 3000 $ of loss by lot. In a situation like this we would lose the gains obtained with 1 lot in 5 years. Too hard to fit. Therefore I thought that a good way to manage the operation could be doing the opposite operation to cover us if the price is close to the short strikes and we reach a loss of 6 x IM. The opposite operation would be with continuous strikes to the originals. Example: -2PUT2190 + 3PUT1875. Once we reach the loss of 6 x IM we cover with + 2PUT2200 -3PUT1880. From here, if the SPX continues to go down, all are benefits. If SPX turns around the loss is practically frozen (6 x IM) but with the advantage that at an appropriate time we can close the coverage and continue managing the initial operation. I think that this exit strategy (no exit) is much more bearable psychologically.
Any comments will be welcome

EDIT: The cover will be +2PUT2200 -3PUT1870

If you sold the ES spread on Jan 25, 2018, EW3k8p2270(-2)p2000(+3) then on Feb 5 when it went to 100% using 4xIM you did what you said and bought 2 2280 and sold 3 1990 that spread would cost you net $1,640 each to acquire. I don't see anywhere that you accounted for that cost.

From Feb 5th onward the original spread makes back over $1,000 of the loss. The new spread loses over $1,000. You are still out the cost to acquire the 2nd spread.

You need to do a lot more research on your ideas and work them through before posting them here. This one obviously doesn't work.

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  #6866 (permalink)
dvbattul
Singapore
 
Posts: 46 since May 2015
Thanks Given: 25
Thanks Received: 35

I am attaching backtesting done on SPX from 2015 to 2018 on TOS for a ratio spread. TOS doesn't allow backtesting of ES and I have still not grasped the concepts of XLS SPAN; I will be working on it. In the past 2-3 months, I found that deltas of options of SPX and ES are almost the same or very close for the same strikes. Hence, I decided to do backtesting on SPX for the ratio spread to get some idea how ES ratio spread could work out till I can use XLS SPAN.
Typically, total premium for the spread on ES is about half of that for SPX. The typical margin for the spread was around $765 in the past few weeks though this will change when market falls. But, I have used these values to calculate the monthly ROI (mROI) for ES based on the SPX profit/loss. TOS shows only end of the day prices for options during backtesting.

The ratio spread is done as follows:
1 long Put at delta = -3 and 3 short Puts at delta = -2 at 90-120 DTE
Exit at 50% of the initial premium or when the current premium is 200% of the initial premium as suggested by James Cordier for stop-loss.
I did not continue backtesting once the 200% stop-loss is hit. I exited the trade at 200% loss and entered a new trade on the same date. Most trades don't have loss; some have losses about $100 which I have not shown in the spreadsheet as these trades eventually became profitable.

TOS backtesting tool doesn't show margin change; hence I could not use the margin for exit criterion.
Hence, how ES ratio spread will work out based on SPX ratio spread may not be very accurate, but I feel, it gives some idea. My apologies if some don't find this useful.
The figures are for non-compounding strategy. The results are based on one position of a ratio spread using 6xIM margin ie 6x$765 for all trades.
(There is a gap between Feb 2016 and March 2016 because I started backtesting first from 18/3/16 till 2018. But then realised that there was a market drop in 2015. So, decided to backtest from 24/2/15.)

The results are as follows:

Profit:
2015 $601 13.09%
2016 $1374.5 29.95%
2017 $1147 24.99%

Average 21.8%
Average mROI is 1.54%.

Attached Files
Elite Membership required to download: SPX Ratio Spread Backtesting V2.xls
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  #6867 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 980
Thanks Received: 5,785


dvbattul View Post
I am attaching backtesting done on SPX from 2015 to 2018 on TOS for a ratio spread. TOS doesn't allow backtesting of ES and I have still not grasped the concepts of XLS SPAN; I will be working on it. In the past 2-3 months, I found that deltas of options of SPX and ES are almost the same or very close for the same strikes. Hence, I decided to do backtesting on SPX for the ratio spread to get some idea how ES ratio spread could work out till I can use XLS SPAN.
Typically, total premium for the spread on ES is about half of that for SPX. The typical margin for the spread was around $765 in the past few weeks though this will change when market falls. But, I have used these values to calculate the monthly ROI (mROI) for ES based on the SPX profit/loss. TOS shows only end of the day prices for options during backtesting.

The ratio spread is done as follows:
1 long Put at delta = -3 and 3 short Puts at delta = -2 at 90-120 DTE
Exit at 50% of the initial premium or when the current premium is 200% of the initial premium as suggested by James Cordier for stop-loss.
I did not continue backtesting once the 200% stop-loss is hit. I exited the trade at 200% loss and entered a new trade on the same date. Most trades don't have loss; some have losses about $100 which I have not shown in the spreadsheet as these trades eventually became profitable.

TOS backtesting tool doesn't show margin change; hence I could not use the margin for exit criterion.
Hence, how ES ratio spread will work out based on SPX ratio spread may not be very accurate, but I feel, it gives some idea. My apologies if some don't find this useful.
The figures are for non-compounding strategy. The results are based on one position of a ratio spread using 6xIM margin ie 6x$765 for all trades.
(There is a gap between Feb 2016 and March 2016 because I started backtesting first from 18/3/16 till 2018. But then realised that there was a market drop in 2015. So, decided to backtest from 24/2/15.)

The results are as follows:

Profit:
2015 $601 13.09%
2016 $1374.5 29.95%
2017 $1147 24.99%

Average 21.8%
Average mROI is 1.54%.

A backtest without looking at margin change isn't much value. A trader gets kicked out of a trade more often by margin calls than losses on premium.

That mROI is lower than what was made with other strategies.

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  #6868 (permalink)
 datahogg 
Knoxville Tennessee USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS
Trading: ES, NQ, CL, /6E futures options.
Posts: 346 since Oct 2012
Thanks Given: 135
Thanks Received: 154


ron99 View Post
A backtest without looking at margin change isn't much value. A trader gets kicked out of a trade more often by margin calls than losses on premium.

That mROI is lower than what was made with other strategies.

Doesn't SPX require Reg T margin?

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  #6869 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 980
Thanks Received: 5,785


datahogg View Post
Doesn't SPX require Reg T margin?

He just used SPX to backtest. He never intends to trade them.

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  #6870 (permalink)
dvbattul
Singapore
 
Posts: 46 since May 2015
Thanks Given: 25
Thanks Received: 35



datahogg View Post
Doesn't SPX require Reg T margin?

You are right but the mROI in the Excel file is calculated for ES, and not for SPX. The margin was assumed to be same as 6x$765 for all ES trades. ES premiums were approximately half of that for SPX. Please see my post and Excel file.
Regards,
Dilip

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