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Selling Options on Futures?


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Selling Options on Futures?

  #6581 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
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Calamari88 View Post
Would it be accurate to say some markets have inherently more volatile premiums and therefore the drawdowns allowable in a trading system should be adjusted by individual market rather than having one global rule for drawdowns? For example should one market be allowed 6X initial margin excess and another allowed only 3x initial margin excess depending on past variability over the life of an average trade in a given market?

Yes but the amount of excess should be checked with backtesting and then a little more added.

For example, it was backtested and shown that 4xIM worked for the ES spread strategy from 2013 to 2018. But last week it wouldn't have worked depending on the day you entered. 5xIM would have worked where 4xIM didn't.

Have you found that 3xIM works for some commodities?

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  #6582 (permalink)
Calamari88
Henderson, NV, USA
 
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ron99 View Post
Yes but the amount of excess should be checked with backtesting and then a little more added.

For example, it was backtested and shown that 4xIM worked for the ES spread strategy from 2013 to 2018. But last week it wouldn't have worked depending on the day you entered. 5xIM would have worked where 4xIM didn't.

Have you found that 3xIM works for some commodities?

Thanks Ron. Setting risk parameters based on IM is relatively new to me so I don't have a meaningful database to share based on individual commodities. My learning curve is slower since I'm just at this part time. However, after 7 years of option selling, I've found certain markets have given me the biggest drawdowns. The biggest drawdowns came from Natural Gas, E-mini S&P 500 and the Foods and Softs, (especially Coffee). I have had the least drawdowns from T-notes, Hogs and Live Cattle.

I would like to backtest the IM on my past trades to see how the margins fluctuated prior to expiration. Do you know where I can find historical margin rates?

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  #6583 (permalink)
 sapiens 
Singapore
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TOS, MT4
Trading: ES
Posts: 21 since Dec 2017
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ron99 View Post
Yes but the amount of excess should be checked with backtesting and then a little more added.

For example, it was backtested and shown that 4xIM worked for the ES spread strategy from 2013 to 2018. But last week it wouldn't have worked depending on the day you entered. 5xIM would have worked where 4xIM didn't.

Have you found that 3xIM works for some commodities?


Ron, What's your take on the 3longs 2shorts /ES strategy in comparison with the 2longs 1shorts? Are you doing mainly just the 3-2? Or both

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  #6584 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
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Calamari88 View Post
Thanks Ron. Setting risk parameters based on IM is relatively new to me so I don't have a meaningful database to share based on individual commodities. My learning curve is slower since I'm just at this part time. However, after 7 years of option selling, I've found certain markets have given me the biggest drawdowns. The biggest drawdowns came from Natural Gas, E-mini S&P 500 and the Foods and Softs, (especially Coffee). I have had the least drawdowns from T-notes, Hogs and Live Cattle.

I would like to backtest the IM on my past trades to see how the margins fluctuated prior to expiration. Do you know where I can find historical margin rates?

Dudetooth's XLS-SPAN Excel spreadsheet does that. It can be found in the PC-SPAN thread here. CME has the files needed going back to Jan 2013.

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  #6585 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 980
Thanks Received: 5,785


sapiens View Post
Ron, What's your take on the 3longs 2shorts /ES strategy in comparison with the 2longs 1shorts? Are you doing mainly just the 3-2? Or both

I am only doing 2x3 because it had higher median ROI than other strategies tested.


But for this crash the 1x2 performed well. It only needed 4xIM to ride it out while the 2x3 had to have 5xIM to ride it out.


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  #6586 (permalink)
Calamari88
Henderson, NV, USA
 
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ron99 View Post
Dudetooth's XLS-SPAN Excel spreadsheet does that. It can be found in the PC-SPAN thread here. CME has the files needed going back to Jan 2013.

Thanks, I'll check it out. In determining the IM excess how many trades do you consider an adequate sampling for a given market?

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  #6587 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
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Calamari88 View Post
Thanks, I'll check it out. In determining the IM excess how many trades do you consider an adequate sampling for a given market?

Cherry pick the largest moves and then pick the worst day, bottom or top before big move, to enter a trade before the move. Do as many as you can.

If this helps you can go to my Tableau charts (Seasonal Futures (contract you want to see) at bottom of this page) to see all settlements since 2006 for last 9 months a contract traded.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

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  #6588 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
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Lots of stories about today regarding a whistle-blower alleging VIX is manipulated. While I find zero-hedge interesting reading, their continual 'the world is about to end' style reporting has got old. Saying that, I thought their piece on this was decent, even if they are claiming they unearthed this conspiracy years ago.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-13/whistleblower-exposes-rampant-manipulation-vix

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  #6589 (permalink)
 datahogg 
Knoxville Tennessee USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Trading: ES, NQ, CL, /6E futures options.
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So do we call the last 2 weeks

"The Valentines Day massacre of 2018" ?

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  #6590 (permalink)
 sapiens 
Singapore
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TOS, MT4
Trading: ES
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ron99 View Post
I am only doing 2x3 because it had higher median ROI than other strategies tested.


But for this crash the 1x2 performed well. It only needed 4xIM to ride it out while the 2x3 had to have 5xIM to ride it out.


Is there a certain premium credit you are looking for when entering the 2x3 and 1x2? or you will take whatever price the market is giving at that moment?

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