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Full Senate is starting to work on it next week. The goal is before the end of the year. If Senate passes a tax cut bill that bill and House bill will need to match through an agreement. Could be major changes to the bills through that process.
I would buy Jan puts at a low delta like 1 or 2 if I was suspecting a large drop in futures early Dec. You get a higher ROI buying low priced puts. But you have to have the large drop in futures quickly.
Dec puts are too close to expiration and the time erosion is too high and that prevents any large increase in put premium unless they went ITM.
On Nov 1 I sold ESg8p2040(2)p1800(3) for an average price of 2.9619. Today I exited at an average price of 1.7143. 27 days held. ROI about 1.8%.
This makes 12 spreads traded this year.
I am going to wait until after US Congress passes? tax cut bill and spending bills to keep government open before I reenter. Too much risk if those don't happen.
I know I am violating my rule of keep positions on at all times and ignore any news. But I would rather miss profit than give away profit.
Hi guys, have a question about selling options in this low IV environment. Of course there are issues with the tax bill and the investigations, etc happening, but wanted to understand what the thoughts were on this forum about selling premium with calendars:
For ex: Short ESH8 Mar'18 2400P and Buy ESH8 Jan'18 2400P for net credit (I think ~$650 credit with ~$900 margin).
Idea, atleast in principal, is that any short term corrections are protected through near-term long option and neutral to bullish move would deteriorate both options. On Jan'18 long leg expiry, we'd roll to a Long Mar'18 Put and Short Jun'18 Put.
Not sure if this has been tried out before and if anyone would care to share their thoughts. Trying to find a way to stay invested with some protection from externalities.
Like I heard on CNBC "Some times the best Trade is NO Trade". I did buy a very small ESH8 Jan'18 2000p position to satisfy my psudogambeling thirst. I realise no backtest has shown a 25% drop in such a short time but close to the money can realize me some profits.
No. They now need to prevent government shutdown by passing legislation to fund government. Republicans will need Democratic party votes to pass this one.
Current deadline date is midnight Dec 8. They are already talking about extending that deadline to either Dec 22 or Dec 30.
