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Selling Options on Futures?
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Selling Options on Futures?

  #6271 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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Calamari88 View Post
On seasonal charts which time frame is more reliable to factor into a trade - the 5 year or the 15 year chart?

It depends on the commodity. From time to time there are severe changes in the fundamentals of each commodity, and seasonal charts going back too far are worthless. Some examples:

In the nineties there were problems regarding the coffee crop in Brazil due to frost. As a consequence, coffee plants were moved to a safer region.

15 or 20 years ago the orange crop in Florida had similar frost problems. The trees were moved southwards.

1950 there were not many exports of soybeans from Brazil, and seasonals were determinded more or less only by the crop cycle in the US. Today Brazil is a large exporter. Seasonals for soybeans now include the South American crop cycle, which obviously is different from the North American one.

Furthermore, the 5 year charts have the risk that they are strongly influenced by one extreme year.

Ron's charts really help to find a seasonal chart that fits to a commodity. Although I am customer of MRCI for many years, I often use them.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #6272 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Shoham Israel
 
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sold 57 ZM Oct 345 calls @0.35 cr
profit target: half credit.

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  #6273 (permalink)
Elite Member
toronto/ontario/canada
 
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myrrdin View Post
It depends on the commodity. From time to time there are severe changes in the fundamentals of each commodity, and seasonal charts going back too far are worthless. Some examples:

In the nineties there were problems regarding the coffee crop in Brazil due to frost. As a consequence, coffee plants were moved to a safer region.

15 or 20 years ago the orange crop in Florida had similar frost problems. The trees were moved southwards.

1950 there were not many exports of soybeans from Brazil, and seasonals were determinded more or less only by the crop cycle in the US. Today Brazil is a large exporter. Seasonals for soybeans now include the South American crop cycle, which obviously is different from the North American one.

Furthermore, the 5 year charts have the risk that they are strongly influenced by one extreme year.

Ron's charts really help to find a seasonal chart that fits to a commodity. Although I am customer of MRCI for many years, I often use them.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I exited SPX at $2 , entry yesterday was $.1.3,looks like a bargain now

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  #6274 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
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isold View Post
HI Ron, are YOU selling at 243 ish now, or waiting till morning ?

I filled my accounts yesterday. No more selling for a while.

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  #6275 (permalink)
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I should keep half of long putsposition for a an a hour,but last week when didd it I lost b/c the price took off,so now I am more cautious. Trump saga could play loner.Rumors about G.Cohen resign. could be not so fake and distant

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  #6276 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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volramp View Post
sold 57 ZM Oct 345 calls @0.35 cr
profit target: half credit.

For my taste, these options are too cheap, not enough DTE (only 37), and too close to the money. If the price of the underlying moves only 10 c, the value of the options will have doubled.

Soybeans are still in a weather market - pod filling stage is not over in all regions. In case of an unfriendly weather report on Sunday the price of soymeal might show a gap upwards. (I do not like to sell options in a weather market at all.)

But of course, this trade might be a winner. The problem is: If you place such trades for a while, there will be a looser. And this looser might eat up all of your previous gains (and perhaps more).

I wish you good luck !

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #6277 (permalink)
Elite Member
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ron99 View Post
I filled my accounts yesterday. No more selling for a while.


Mine is still pending but it's got 21 days of decay built in and will be my last one for a bit also. I hope this volatility calms down again but at this point who knows.


/rsm005/

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  #6278 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Shoham Israel
 
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myrrdin View Post
For my taste, these options are too cheap, not enough DTE (only 37), and too close to the money. If the price of the underlying moves only 10 c, the value of the options will have doubled.

Soybeans are still in a weather market - pod filling stage is not over in all regions. In case of an unfriendly weather report on Sunday the price of soymeal might show a gap upwards. (I do not like to sell options in a weather market at all.)

But of course, this trade might be a winner. The problem is: If you place such trades for a while, there will be a looser. And this looser might eat up all of your previous gains (and perhaps more).

I wish you good luck !

Best regards, Myrrdin

Thnx for the input. appreciated.

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  #6279 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
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isold View Post
Hi Ron! Just curios ,what was your draw back on Aug 11,(N. Korea tensions) ?

I just realized my previous answer did not show the daily change in account balance. I added two columns on the right hand side.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


On 20170810 the account lost 5.2% compared to prior day.

On 20170814 the account made 5%.

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  #6280 (permalink)
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I have a question of a practicality so to say. The profit of baying back half premium is around $ 1.5-2, which is ~ $100 minus commission , per month !! Is it worth the effort,unless you have another 3,4 positions in other products.Sorry in advance ,maybe I don't understand something here

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