Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Looks like we are getting the ESm early April seasonal dip this year. It usually lasts until April 11th. (people withdrawing money from the market to pay taxes?)
Early April’s Bullish Inclination
Posted on April 3, 2017 by Rob Hanna
The study below is one I have shown here on the blog a few times over the years. It examines the bullish inclination the market has had in early April.
Numbers here appear impressive. Of further note, sixteen of the 1st eighteen years were higher on day 4, but the 2012-2014 instances saw mild declines. Meanwhile, the 2-day time period has been positive 10 of the last 11 years, with 2015 being the only loser and closing down less than 1 SPX point. So potentially bullish early April seasonality is something traders may want to keep in mind the next few days.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206
Like most of these things its very very start/end date specific.
First two days in April are big up moves, so the difference between last day in March vs April Xth vs 2nd date in April vs April Yth is significant.
Using your own chart...
A shout of thanks to @ron99 for all his effort to share info with us on this thread!
I sold EW3N7p1900p1600(2) on 3-21 for 3.35. Exited on 4-5 at 1.90. Held 16 days, MOI was 3.6% using 8x margin.
Looking to add a position this week sometime.
Do you have any rules for yourself when to roll or get out of the strangle when it goes against you?
I started last summer withe rules mentioned in the Cordier book (200% rule, although on strangles he is less defined). But I find you have to give far OTM options considerable room to breathe.
For a strangle now I roll the untested side when the tested side has a delta of about 15; this worked so far but I have limited experience and no ability to backtest.
