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Selling Options on Futures?
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Selling Options on Futures?

  #5201 (permalink)
Elite Member
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SMCJB View Post
Thinking about this weeks stock market action I kept coming back to August of this year, and specifically what happened when we had two large consecutive down days, especally when the second down day was a Friday.

You may remember my post here on August 22nd which basically said...


So this got me thinking what happens when we have a truly terrible week, and we finish the week with a Friday sell off? Thankfully the statistics are no where near as bearish as they were in August. Unfortunately my normal program for doing this analysis is out of action so I had to do it in Excel. As you can see definitely a bearish inclination to Monday, but nothing that severe.

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Apologies for cross posting this but I'm posting it in the ES options Selling Thread, ES Analysis Thread & the Homework Thread.

Hi SMCJB
Your stats look impressive - Would you care to elaborate on just what techniques you used to derive the stats ?

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  #5202 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
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Apologies for cross posting this but I'm posting it in the ES options Selling Thread, ES Analysis Thread & the Homework Thread.

SMCJB,

Your image seems to be broken here...can you repost?

Thanks,
/rsm005/

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  #5203 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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FYI


Quoting 
Last time S&P closed an expiration week like this the next trading session was August 24th


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  #5204 (permalink)
World'sWorstTrader
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ron99 View Post
FYI


But Monday is a holiday. Tuesday could be interesting.

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  #5205 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Quoting 
Last time S&P closed an expiration week like this the next trading session was August 24th

I'm not saying I'm bullish in anyway but I don't think they look that similar at all.
Prior to Aug 24th we had two consecutive 2% down days and 4 consecutive down days in total (6.3% total).
Yesterday the market was up nearly as much as it was down today. In fact this week, the market has been up 3 days out of the 5 and this weeks drop (2.2%) is actually small compared with last weeks (6%) and the week of Aug 14-21 (5.8%).

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  #5206 (permalink)
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datahogg View Post
But Monday is a holiday. Tuesday could be interesting.

Correct. The problem for the US markets is that the world markets get to lead the way for 30 hours, and unfortunately they are all weaker than the US.

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  #5207 (permalink)
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Saying that, the equity markets this week seemed to have followed oil's rapid descent.
Of course similar to equities, Brent is open on Monday as normal, and WTI will be tradable on Globex, so Europe could take oil higher or lower.

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  #5208 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Big down day today with a low volume market on Monday could lead to large traders moving the market a large amount in the direction of least resistance. Down.

But I don't know for sure.

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  #5209 (permalink)
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Genuinely wondering if the fundamental picture of the economy, both US and abroad, has changed.

/rsm005/

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  #5210 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
I'm not saying I'm bullish in anyway but I don't think they look that similar at all.
Prior to Aug 24th we had two consecutive 2% down days and 4 consecutive down days in total (6.3% total).
Yesterday the market was up nearly as much as it was down today. In fact this week, the market has been up 3 days out of the 5 and this weeks drop (2.2%) is actually small compared with last weeks (6%) and the week of Aug 14-21 (5.8%).

High beta and credit are much lower than aug 24

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