Selling Options on Futures? (Page 520) - Options on Futures | futures.io
futures.io futures trading
 

Go Back   futures.io

> Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Options on Futures


Selling Options on Futures?
Started:July 19th, 2011 (06:16 PM) by ron99 Views / Replies:568,944 / 5,728
Last Reply:16 Hours Ago (05:26 PM) Attachments:642

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike
     

Reply
 642  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread

Selling Options on Futures?

Old January 8th, 2016, 11:08 AM   #5191 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,324 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,904 received


danjuma View Post
Thank you sir.

If you click the "Thanks" button in the lower right of my post then you wouldn't need to add a new post to thank me that adds length to the thread and prevents people form reading the whole thread.

Reply With Quote
     
The following 3 users say Thank You to ron99 for this post:
     

Old January 8th, 2016, 09:53 PM   #5192 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Springfield USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ToS and IB
Favorite Futures: ES,SPX
 
Posts: 13 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 10 given, 16 received


SMCJB View Post
Little surprised ES Vol hasn't spiked more.
5 mins before China opens with no circuit breakers and the F ATM Straddle is 25.5% which is high but not that high.

I think that is because the Chinese Government came in and did a lot of buying today. There is no way they were going to allow a 10-20% crash the day after they removed the circuit breaker. They would have looked even worse and they believe in keeping up their reputation at all costs

Reply With Quote
     

Old January 8th, 2016, 10:15 PM   #5193 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,586 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,394 given, 2,358 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Thinking about this weeks stock market action I kept coming back to August of this year, and specifically what happened when we had two large consecutive down days, especally when the second down day was a Friday.

You may remember my post here on August 22nd which basically said...

SMCJB View Post
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


but....
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Post 1987 there have been 24 consecutive down days.
21 of these have occurred on Mon-Thur and the next day the market is up and average of 2.1%
Just 3 of these have occurred on a Friday. ALL All 3 OCCURENECES the market was DOWN the next day by an average of 2.2%. Even worse 2 of the 3 occurrences the market was down AGAIN on the following day.

Remember this is post 1987 and excludes Black Monday If you include 1987 these numbers will look much much worse.

So this got me thinking what happens when we have a truly terrible week, and we finish the week with a Friday sell off? Thankfully the statistics are no where near as bearish as they were in August. Unfortunately my normal program for doing this analysis is out of action so I had to do it in Excel. As you can see definitely a bearish inclination to Monday, but nothing that severe.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Apologies for cross posting this but I'm posting it in the ES options Selling Thread, ES Analysis Thread & the Homework Thread.

Reply With Quote
     
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old January 8th, 2016, 10:24 PM   #5194 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Springfield USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: ToS and IB
Favorite Futures: ES,SPX
 
Posts: 13 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 10 given, 16 received

I think there is nervousness at the close hence the big drop. I bought puts at a few levels early in the week after the first circuit breaker event

I guess we will see what happens. earning season is starting soon so if they are soft who knows

Reply With Quote
     

Old January 9th, 2016, 02:56 AM   #5195 (permalink)
Elite Member
vancouver BC/Canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Zaner360, OX
Broker/Data: DeCaley
Favorite Futures: options
 
Posts: 213 since Jan 2015
Thanks: 13 given, 172 received

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 

SMCJB View Post

So this got me thinking what happens when we have a truly terrible week, and we finish the week with a Friday sell off? Thankfully the statistics are no where near as bearish as they were in August. Unfortunately my normal program for doing this analysis is out of action so I had to do it in Excel. As you can see definitely a bearish inclination to Monday, but nothing that severe.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Apologies for cross posting this but I'm posting it in the ES options Selling Thread, ES Analysis Thread & the Homework Thread.

I'm more interested in seeing if this is the start of a larger trend down. So far the only thing I'm reading is gloom and doom in the market and the economy as a whole which seems to contradict what the Fed is thinking. There's nothing to do but watch and see how the market reacts to earnings. My gut says we go back to where things were in August but what do I know .

/rsm005/

Reply With Quote
     

Old January 9th, 2016, 05:40 AM   #5196 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, United Kingdom
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: N/A
Broker/Data: Bloomberg
Favorite Futures: Energies
 
CobblersAwls's Avatar
 
Posts: 253 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 800 given, 308 received


rsm005 View Post
I'm more interested in seeing if this is the start of a larger trend down. So far the only thing I'm reading is gloom and doom in the market and the economy as a whole which seems to contradict what the Fed is thinking. There's nothing to do but watch and see how the market reacts to earnings. My gut says we go back to where things were in August but what do I know .

/rsm005/

But doesn't a rise in yields and strength in USD typically lead to a decline in stock values? This all seems completely normal to me as participants wean themselves off the stimulant that was QE and return to 'normalisation'.

Over the long term we will see a flush out of weak hands (zombie businesses surviving just due to low rates/ cheap money) and a strengthening of those businesses who have a solid base from which they can grow as their competitors fall. Once rates stabilise and weak businesses are flushed out, I predict we will see stocks once again perform well as these stronger businesses blossom.

What this has to do with Oil - well I think it is a similar story. With the USD likely to continue strengthening, I think we will see lower oil for longer. The market is flooded at the moment and from speaking to people in the physical market - refineries are cautious to take on new deliveries unless the prices are very competitive, as there is just so much supply and willing sellers. Once again - we need to see a flush out of the dead wood and strengthening of others before the industry revitalises. That said - I think even then $40-$60 p/bbl will be the new range.

NB: Just realised this is not the CL thread. Will leave comment though as I suppose it fits.


Last edited by CobblersAwls; January 9th, 2016 at 03:35 PM.
Reply With Quote
     

Old January 9th, 2016, 11:49 AM   #5197 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,324 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,904 received

Also part of the reason the stock market is down is because all of the energy companies's stock is down because of the low raw product prices. Oil down brings oil company stocks down.

Reply With Quote
     

Old January 11th, 2016, 09:09 PM   #5198 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
westhills california US
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TOS
Favorite Futures: FOREX,STOCKS,FUTURES
 
Posts: 28 since May 2015
Thanks: 26 given, 5 received

Any one selling puts on ES?
Just wondering if one should wait till ES tests the AUG lows?

Reply With Quote
     

Old January 12th, 2016, 03:13 AM   #5199 (permalink)
Elite Member
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 679 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,032 given, 550 received


rajab View Post
Any one selling puts on ES?
Just wondering if one should wait till ES tests the AUG lows?

I bought my ES put positions back. In my opinion there are more promising trades around.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
     

Old January 12th, 2016, 02:15 PM   #5200 (permalink)
Elite Member
vancouver BC/Canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Zaner360, OX
Broker/Data: DeCaley
Favorite Futures: options
 
Posts: 213 since Jan 2015
Thanks: 13 given, 172 received



rajab View Post
Any one selling puts on ES?
Just wondering if one should wait till ES tests the AUG lows?


My opinion, there's no point in selling puts until after earnings season. There's too many unknowns right now and the market hasn't had a very healthy start to the year. The general consensus seems to be that earnings will be very "meh" which in the broader context of things will keep the market down. As others have said the S&P is tied to the price of oil and right now there doesn't seem to be a floor in sight. I did run a few back tests over the past few days to see how Ron's spread method holds up given the latest market drop and it's been pretty interesting.

Here's what would have happened had you opened a position just before Christmas with the idea that a santa claus rally was coming. As you can see it got close to 50% before the big drop in the new year but even then the margin holds are not that terrible.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Here's what would have happened if you opened a position in the beginning of January with the idea that the new year would start with a bang.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Again you'd be down but could sleep at night knowing you won't get wiped out in a jarring move down. Either way, if you ABSOLUTELY HAVE to put a trade on, there's better places to do that right now. I just don't know any other markets that well and frankly will not try and pretend I do to make a buck, I've still got my day job . I paid my tuition to the market in August and am more than willing to wait and see how all this shakes out in Q1 before doing anything.

/rsm005/

Reply With Quote
     
The following 10 users say Thank You to rsm005 for this post:
     

Reply



futures.io > Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Options on Futures > Selling Options on Futures?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

NinjaTrader 8: Features and Enhancements, Tips and Tricks

Dec 6
 

Al Brooks: Stop Losing when a Good Trade goes Bad, Correcting Mistakes

Elite only
 

Trading Technologies: Algo Design Lab hands-on

Dec 13
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Crude Oil (CL) futures inverse pairing options Big Mike Commodities Futures Trading 8 December 12th, 2013 12:00 PM
Recommend futures, options Broker? sam1197 Brokers and Data Feeds 17 March 27th, 2013 01:42 AM
Trading Futures with options as protection Gooffy2010 Commodities Futures Trading 6 October 2nd, 2012 05:55 PM
Selling Njniatrader sam1197 NinjaTrader 22 June 28th, 2012 01:40 PM
Zen-Fire Futures options tici88 Brokers and Data Feeds 1 July 30th, 2011 10:16 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:23 AM.

Copyright © 2016 by futures.io. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 
no new posts

Page generated 2016-12-07 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.159.189.139